At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who scored 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost. Historically, fighters landing 5+ takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81.08% of the time, and those landing 7+ win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8, yet both lost their respective fights. Taira in particular achieved solid takedowns with full ground control lasting nearly 11 minutes, but was still finished. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestlers maintain about 80% win probability, total well-rounded skill remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health, weight cut, and circumstances.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical rarity on Saturday night when two fighters each recorded eight or more takedowns in their respective title bouts and still came away with losses, defying some of the sport's most reliable historical trends.
Khamzat Chimaev, the pound-for-pound top-ten middleweight known as "Borz," fell to 15-1-0 despite landing nine takedowns in his title fight. The 32-year-old from the United Arab Emirates trains out of Allstars Training Center and entered the contest as the number-one ranked middleweight in the division. His career averages reflect one of the most relentless grapplers on the roster, logging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes alongside 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute at 60 percent accuracy — a combination that makes him dangerous in every phase.
Tatsuro Taira, the 26-year-old Japanese flyweight ranked fifth in his division, suffered an even more punishing statistical injustice. The southpaw-turned-orthodox fighter out of The Blackbelt Japan landed eight takedowns and held nearly 11 minutes of ground control, yet was finished before the final bell. Taira came in at 18-2-0 and averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, complemented by 1.6 submission attempts in the same span and a striking accuracy of 60 percent.
Why it matters
- Historical data shows fighters landing 5 or more takedowns in UFC title fights win roughly 81 percent of the time, making a double exception at a single event exceptionally rare.
- Both losses suggest that elite wrestling, while a powerful advantage, does not guarantee title success when opponents possess well-rounded finishing ability.
- The energy demands of sustained grappling — compounded by factors such as weight cuts and overall health — can erode a wrestler's effectiveness even when the takedown numbers appear dominant on paper.
- Chimaev's defeat drops him from the summit of the middleweight division, while Taira's loss reshapes the flyweight title picture at just 26 years old.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
