At UFC 328, a rare statistical phenomenon occurred twice: fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5+ takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira achieved 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but still lost their championship fights. The analysis suggests this demonstrates the importance of total well-roundedness over wrestling dominance alone, as factors like weight cut, health, and circumstances heavily impact wrestling-heavy game plans.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly so unlikely it happened twice on the same card, as both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira lost their respective title fights despite recording extraordinary takedown numbers — nine and eight respectively — in championship bouts at the May 9 event.
Chimaev, the 32-year-old middleweight contender ranked first in his division and tenth pound-for-pound, entered his championship fight as one of the most complete grapplers in the sport. The UAE-based Allstars Training Center product carries a 15-1-0 record and averages a remarkable 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, complemented by 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute and a 60 percent striking accuracy rate. Despite overwhelming his opponent on the mat with nine takedowns, he could not secure the belt.
Taira, 26 years old and ranked fifth in the flyweight division, brought a similarly grappling-intensive approach to his own title shot. The Japanese fighter out of The Blackbelt Japan holds an 18-2-0 record and averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, adding 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes to his offensive arsenal. His eight takedowns in the fight placed him statistically among the most active grapplers in flyweight championship history, yet the result still went against him.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time, rising to 83 percent at seven or more — making two losses at eight-plus takedowns on one card extraordinarily rare.
- The results suggest that wrestling volume alone does not guarantee championship success, with factors such as weight cuts, overall health, and well-roundedness playing decisive roles.
- Both outcomes carry immediate divisional consequences, as Chimaev remains at the top of the middleweight rankings and Taira retains his fifth-place standing in flyweight, keeping both in contention despite the defeats.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
