At UFC 328, an unusual statistical anomaly occurred twice: fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those landing 7 or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns while Tatsuro Taira landed 8, with Taira also controlling his opponent for nearly 11 minutes, yet both lost their championship fights. Taira's takedowns were particularly effective with full position and long control time, but he was still finished by Joshua Van despite not appearing tired or broken. The post analyzes how even elite wrestlers maintain only 80% victory chances and how total well-roundedness remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health, weight management, and circumstances.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical rarity on the night of May 9, 2026: not once but twice, a fighter dominated on the mat with eight or more takedowns in a title bout and still walked away without the belt.
Tatsuro Taira, the fifth-ranked flyweight contender from Japan, landed eight takedowns against champion Joshua Van and held control for nearly eleven minutes across the fight. The 26-year-old trains out of The Blackbelt Japan and carries an 18-2 record, averaging 3.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes over his career. Despite that output and a 60 percent striking accuracy, Van — the reigning flyweight champion from Myanmar — finished him. Van, just 24 years old and now 17-2, is a remarkable offensive force, averaging 8.84 significant strikes per minute at 56 percent accuracy. He stopped Taira without the challenger appearing visibly exhausted or broken down heading into the finish.
In the middleweight title fight, Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and still came up short. The number-one ranked middleweight, representing the UAE out of Allstars Training Center, is 15-1 with elite wrestling credentials — 5.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes — and sits at number ten in the pound-for-pound rankings. The 32-year-old "Borz" also contributes offensively with 4.04 significant strikes per minute, yet his grappling volume on the night was not enough to secure the championship.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win over 81 percent of the time, making two losses in the same event at eight-plus takedowns exceptionally rare.
- Both results reinforce that elite wrestling, while a powerful tool, carries an energy cost and remains vulnerable to well-rounded opposition that can finish fights from anywhere.
- Taira's loss despite sustained top control raises questions about whether finishing ability, not just positional dominance, is the true separator at championship level.
- Van's performance cements his status as a flyweight champion capable of overcoming elite grappling volume, while Chimaev's loss complicates his path back to a title.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
