At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice as fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83 percent of the time. Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8 with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both lost their respective fights. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain roughly 80 percent win probability, total MMA versatility remains superior. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, travel, and opponent skill can dramatically shift those odds against even dominant wrestlers. The analysis suggests Chimaev has potential to become more well-rounded and could benefit from developing his striking game further with proper coaching.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
