At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, while those landing 7 or more win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev completed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8 takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both lost their respective championship fights. The post analyzes that while elite-level wrestlers maintain roughly 80 percent win probability, total well-rounded skill remains superior, as wrestling is highly energy-intensive and dependent on health factors like weight cutting, injuries, and overall physical condition. The analysis suggests fighters like Chimaev need to develop more complete striking games to complement their wrestling, particularly when health issues may compromise their grappling effectiveness.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical rarity on Saturday night when two fighters completed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts and still walked away with losses — an outcome that defied the overwhelming historical trend at the sport's highest level.
Khamzat Chimaev, known as "Borz," entered his middleweight title fight as the division's top-ranked contender and the tenth-ranked fighter pound for pound. The 32-year-old from the United Arab Emirates carries a 15-1-0 record and trains out of Allstars Training Center. His grappling has long been his calling card, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career, and he put that skillset to work on Saturday, completing nine takedowns in the bout. Yet the championship still eluded him.
The second instance involved flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira of Japan, ranked fifth in the division at just 26 years old. Taira, who holds an 18-2-0 record and trains with The Blackbelt Japan, landed eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of control time. Despite that dominant positional output, he too came up short on the judges' scorecards.
Why it matters
- Historical data shows UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, rising to 83 percent at seven or more — making two losses at eight-plus takedowns exceptionally rare in one event.
- Wrestling at elite volume is physically taxing, and factors such as weight cutting and pre-existing injuries can blunt its effectiveness over championship rounds.
- Both performances suggest that takedown quantity alone does not guarantee championship success when an opponent's well-rounded skill set neutralizes positional advantages.
- For Chimaev in particular, the result reinforces questions about whether his striking — accurate at 60 percent but averaging 4.04 significant strikes per minute — needs further development to win decisions when his grappling volume is not translating to finishes or dominant scoring.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
