A rare statistical anomaly occurred at UFC 328 where two fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts both lost their fights. Historically, fighters who complete 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira secured 8 takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling still provides an 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts skills are more reliable. The post argues that wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health conditions, weight management, and other variables that can shift win probability dramatically against skilled striker-generalists.
Two championship bouts at UFC 328 on May 9 produced a striking statistical anomaly: both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira landed eight or more takedowns in their respective title fights and still walked away with losses.
Chimaev, nicknamed "Borz," entered his middleweight title bout ranked first in the division and tenth pound-for-pound, carrying a 15-1-0 record. The 32-year-old representing the United Arab Emirates and training out of Allstars Training Center is one of the most physically imposing wrestlers in the sport, standing six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach and averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career. Despite landing nine takedowns in the championship round, he could not secure the belt.
Taira's performance was equally dominant on paper. The 26-year-old Japanese flyweight, ranked fifth in his division and training with The Blackbelt Japan, came in at 18-2-0 with a takedown rate of 3.12 per 15 minutes. He secured eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet still came up short.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC title-fight competitors who complete five or more takedowns win 81 percent of the time, and those with seven or more win 83 percent — making both outcomes statistical outliers.
- The results suggest that elite wrestling, while a powerful advantage, is not determinative against high-level striker-generalists who can absorb or neutralize grappling volume.
- Wrestling at championship pace is physically costly, and variables such as weight management and overall health conditions can erode its effectiveness in ways raw takedown numbers do not capture.
- Both losses carry meaningful divisional consequences: Chimaev remains outside the middleweight title picture despite his top ranking, while Taira's second career defeat complicates his path back toward flyweight gold.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
