At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those landing 7 or more win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira completed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their fights. The post analyzes that while elite-level wrestlers maintain an 80 percent win probability, total mixed martial arts skills are ultimately superior. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, and travel can dramatically shift odds against even dominant wrestlers facing skilled well-rounded strikers.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical rarity on May 9 when two fighters — Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira — each completed eight or more takedowns in their respective title fights yet walked away with losses on the night.
Chimaev, known as "Borz," entered his middleweight title fight ranked first in the division and tenth pound-for-pound, carrying a 15-1-0 record. The 32-year-old fighting out of the UAE and training at Allstars Training Center is one of the most physically imposing grapplers in the sport, averaging 5.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes alongside 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute at 60 percent accuracy. Despite completing nine takedowns in the contest, he could not secure the victory.
Taira, ranked fifth in the flyweight division, brought an 18-2-0 record into his title fight. The 26-year-old Japanese fighter out of The Blackbelt Japan averages 3.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.6 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, complementing a striking output of 2.94 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent accuracy. He managed eight takedowns and still came up short.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time, rising to 83 percent at seven or more — making two losses in the same event at those numbers exceptionally rare.
- Both outcomes reinforce that volume wrestling alone does not guarantee success at championship level against well-rounded opponents.
- Factors such as weight cutting, accumulated damage, and travel have been cited as variables that can erode a wrestler's effectiveness even when takedown numbers are dominant.
- The results will likely prompt fresh debate around how grappling statistics are weighted when evaluating title fight performances and divisional rankings for both men.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
