At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in a title fight ended up losing. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in a title bout win 81.08 percent of the time, while those landing seven or more takedowns win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, yet both lost their respective championship fights. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain an 80 percent win probability, total well-roundedness remains the ultimate advantage, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health, weight cut, and other circumstantial factors. The analysis suggests that against high-level strikers with universal skills, even dominant wrestling performances can fall short if other elements are not optimal.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical anomaly on Saturday night when two fighters each recorded dominant grappling performances in championship bouts — and still walked away without a belt.
Khamzat Chimaev, the number-one ranked middleweight and tenth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world, landed nine takedowns in his title challenge yet came up short on the judges' scorecards. The 32-year-old from the United Arab Emirates, training out of Allstars Training Center, entered the bout at 15-1-0 and has long been regarded as one of the most complete wrestlers in the 185-pound division. Standing six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach, "Borz" averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands significant strikes at a rate of 4.04 per minute with 60 percent accuracy — a combination that had overwhelmed nearly every opponent he faced prior to this contest.
Tatsuro Taira suffered a similarly frustrating outcome in the flyweight title fight. The 26-year-old Japanese fighter, ranked fifth at 125 pounds and representing The Blackbelt Japan, came in at 18-2-0 and managed eight takedowns across the bout. Taira averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and contributes 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him one of the division's most persistent grapplers. His 60 percent striking accuracy and a reach of 70 inches round out a quietly well-developed skill set.
Why it matters
- Historical data shows UFC fighters landing five or more takedowns in title bouts win 81 percent of the time, making two losses on the same card a genuine outlier
- Both results suggest that against sufficiently well-rounded champions, volume grappling alone carries diminishing returns
- Wrestling is physically costly, and factors such as conditioning, weight cuts, and opponent quality can erode its effectiveness even when the numbers look dominant
- The outcomes add nuance to how divisional rankings and title contention are evaluated going forward, particularly for Chimaev at middleweight and Taira at flyweight
Saturday, May 9, 2026
