At UFC 328, a statistical rarity occurred twice in the same event when fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns lost their title fights. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in championship bouts win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7 or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira landed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their fights. Taira specifically had quality takedowns with full positional control lasting nearly 11 minutes, yet was still finished by his opponent. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain high winning percentages, complete mixed martial arts skill remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health conditions, weight cuts, and other factors that can drastically shift winning probabilities.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly on Saturday night — and then produced it again. Two fighters in separate title bouts each secured eight or more takedowns and still walked away without the belt, a double occurrence that stands apart from years of championship data.
Khamzat Chimaev, known as "Borz," entered his middleweight title fight ranked first in the division and tenth pound-for-pound, carrying a 15-1-0 record and one of the most physically imposing profiles in the sport. The 32-year-old fighting out of the UAE lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent accuracy and averages 5.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Despite recording nine takedowns in the championship bout, he could not secure the victory.
Tatsuro Taira's loss carried its own remarkable footnote. The 26-year-old Japanese flyweight, ranked fifth in his division, holds an 18-2-0 record and averages 3.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes with a striking accuracy of 60 percent. His eight takedowns at UFC 328 came with quality positional control — nearly eleven minutes of dominant top position — yet he was finished before the final horn.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters landing five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time; that number climbs to 83 percent at seven or more, making two losses in the same event at eight-plus deeply unusual.
- Both outcomes reinforce that wrestling volume alone does not guarantee championship success at the highest level, where complete mixed martial arts skill, energy management, and physical condition on fight night all carry significant weight.
- Chimaev's defeat reshapes the top of a stacked middleweight division, while Taira's loss complicates a flyweight landscape he had been steadily climbing.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
