At UFC 328, a statistically rare event occurred twice when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in championship bouts lost their fights. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira completed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their bouts. Taira's takedowns were particularly effective, including full mount positions and nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet he was still finished. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that while elite wrestling maintains an 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts universalism is superior, as wrestling is highly energy-intensive and dependent on health, weight cutting, and other circumstances.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
