UFC 328 featured an unusual statistical anomaly where two fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights both lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who complete 5 or more takedowns in championship fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns against Sean Strickland, and Tatsuro Taira completed 8 takedowns against Joshua Van, yet both lost their title fights. The analysis suggests that while elite-level wrestling remains highly effective, total mixed martial arts skill and fight circumstances can overcome even dominant grappling performances. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, conditioning, and opponent versatility can reduce wrestling-heavy fighters' typical 80% win probability significantly against well-rounded strikers.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
