A statistical anomaly occurred at UFC 328 when two fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts both lost their fights. Historically, UFC fighters who complete five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, with that percentage rising to 83% for seven or more takedowns. Hamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling provides an 80% win probability, total MMA well-roundedness remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health, weight cut, and other variables. Taira controlled Kai Kara-France for nearly 11 minutes but could never secure his signature back mount position despite multiple transitions.
A striking statistical anomaly unfolded at UFC 328 on May 9 when two fighters who each completed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts still walked away with losses, a combination that stands as a rare occurrence in UFC title fight history.
One of those fighters was Tatsuro Taira, the 26-year-old Japanese flyweight ranked fifth in his division. Competing out of The Blackbelt Japan, Taira carries an 18-2 record and has built his reputation on relentless grappling. He averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 1.6 submission attempts in the same window, pairing that ground game with a striking accuracy of 60 percent. Against Kai Kara-France, Taira managed to control his opponent for nearly 11 minutes and converted eight takedowns, yet was unable to reach his signature back mount position despite a series of transitions, and ultimately came up short.
Kara-France, nicknamed "Don't Blink," is a 33-year-old New Zealander out of City Kickboxing with a 25-12 record. Ranked 14th in the flyweight division, he is primarily a striker, averaging 4.46 significant strikes per minute, and he attempts virtually no takedowns or submissions. That he survived Taira's volume grappling and emerged victorious underlines the broader statistical point the event illustrated.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who complete five or more takedowns in title fights win over 81 percent of the time, a figure that climbs to 83 percent at seven or more takedowns.
- Both anomalies occurring on the same card is an extraordinarily rare statistical event that challenges assumptions about wrestling dominance in championship rounds.
- The outcomes suggest that wrestling, while a powerful asset, is energy-intensive and highly sensitive to variables such as health, weight cuts, and overall MMA completeness.
- Taira's loss in particular highlights that controlling time and volume on the ground does not guarantee victory without the finishing positions to match.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
