At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice: fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights both lost. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns against Sean Strickland, while Tatsuro Taira completed 8 takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control against Joshua Van, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests this highlights how even elite-level wrestling carries an 80% win probability, but total well-roundedness remains superior. Wrestling is highly energy-intensive and dependent on health factors like weight cuts, injuries, and travel, which can drastically shift odds against skilled striker-generalists. The post notes Chimaev showed strong striking potential with his jab breaking Strickland's nose, suggesting he could benefit from developing a more complete striking game rather than relying primarily on wrestling.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
