UFC 328 saw an unusual statistical anomaly occur twice on the same card, with fighters losing title fights despite recording eight or more takedowns. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, while those landing seven or more win 83 percent. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira both defied these odds, completing nine and eight takedowns respectively while still losing their bouts. Taira maintained nearly 11 minutes of control time with quality takedowns but was ultimately finished by Joshua Van. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling maintains an 80 percent win probability, total mixed martial arts versatility proves superior, as wrestling's energy demands create vulnerabilities when facing well-rounded strikers under less-than-optimal conditions.
UFC 328, held on May 9, 2026, produced a striking statistical rarity: two fighters on the same card lost their title bouts despite recording eight or more takedowns, an outcome that runs sharply against historical trends.
The first involved Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev, the number-one ranked middleweight and number-ten pound-for-pound contender representing the UAE out of Allstars Training Center. Now sitting at 15-1-0, Chimaev entered as one of the sport's most dominant grapplers, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 60 percent striking accuracy. Standing six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach, his physical tools are elite across the board. Yet he completed nine takedowns in his title fight and still came away with a loss.
The second anomaly unfolded in the flyweight division, where Japan's Tatsuro Taira, ranked fifth at 125 pounds, suffered a finishing defeat at the hands of champion Joshua Van despite landing eight takedowns and accumulating nearly 11 minutes of control time. Taira, 26, carries an 18-2-0 record and averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, making his grappling output that night exceptional even by his own standards. Van, the 24-year-old flyweight champion from Myanmar fighting out of 4oz. Fight Club, offset that pressure with a punishing 8.84 significant strikes landed per minute and 56 percent accuracy, finishing Taira despite the sustained wrestling pressure.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters landing five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time; those landing seven or more win roughly 83 percent — both figures were defied on the same night.
- The back-to-back occurrences raise questions about the energy cost of high-volume wrestling against well-rounded strikers who can exploit accumulated fatigue.
- Van's finish cements his status as a champion capable of winning under extreme positional adversity, while Chimaev's loss at 15-1-0 reshapes the middleweight title picture around the sport's most prolific wrestling threat.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
