UFC 328 witnessed an extremely rare statistical anomaly occurring twice in one night, with fighters landing 8+ takedowns in title fights yet still losing. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, both Chimaev and Taira landed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but were defeated. Taira secured nearly 11 minutes of control time with quality takedowns but was still finished by Van. The post analyzes how even elite wrestlers maintain only 80% win probability, emphasizing the importance of total MMA universalism. Factors like weight cuts, injuries, and opponent preparation can dramatically shift odds against even dominant grapplers when facing skilled strikers.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
