UFC 328 witnessed a rare occurrence when two fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights both lost their bouts. Historically, fighters landing 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7+ win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8, yet both were defeated. Taira's case was particularly notable as he secured clean takedowns with complete top position and nearly 11 minutes of control time without gassing, breaking mentally, or missing a single decisive strike. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestlers maintain an 80% win probability, total well-roundedness trumps pure grappling dominance. Weight cutting issues, injuries, travel, and facing skilled all-around strikers can dramatically reduce a wrestler's advantage from 80% to 20%. The author argues Chimaev showed strong universal potential and would benefit from developing more refined striking skills under proper coaching.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
