UFC 328 featured a rare statistical anomaly occurring twice in one night, as fighters who completed 8+ takedowns in championship bouts lost their fights. Historically, fighters landing 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Chimaev landed nine takedowns while Taira completed eight with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both were defeated. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain roughly 80% win probability, total well-roundedness remains superior. Wrestling is highly energy-intensive and heavily dependent on health factors like weight cuts, minor injuries, and recovery. The analysis suggests Chimaev has untapped potential as a more complete striker given his physical tools, jab effectiveness, and knockout power, but needs better strategic striking development and potentially a dedicated striking coach. Regarding Taira, despite his dominant grappling and back control expertise, he never secured his trademark back mount against Van and continues to struggle with head movement on the feet.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
