UFC 328 witnessed a statistically rare phenomenon occurring twice in one night, as both fighters who secured 8+ takedowns in title fights lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters landing 5+ takedowns in championship fights win 81.08% of the time, while those achieving 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns while Tatsuro Taira secured 8, yet both lost. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with full positional control, accumulating nearly 11 minutes of ground time without fatiguing or making critical errors, yet was still finished. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling maintains 80% win probability, total well-roundedness remains superior. Wrestling's high energy demands and vulnerability to weight cut complications, injuries, and timing issues can drastically shift odds against even dominant strikers. The post examines how Chimaev's compromised preparation and Taira's inability to secure back control against Joshua Van despite repeated opportunities demonstrated the limitations of wrestling-heavy approaches.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
