UFC 328 sees rare double occurrence: fighters with 8+ takedowns lose title fights

A rare statistical anomaly occurred twice at UFC 328, where fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in championship fights still lost. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7 or more win 83% of the time. Both Chimaev and Taira completed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but were defeated. Taira particularly had high-quality takedowns with full positional control totaling nearly 11 minutes, yet was still finished without gassing, breaking mentally, or making a singular mistake. The analysis suggests that while elite-level wrestlers maintain an 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts universalism remains superior. The post notes that wrestling's energy demands and sensitivity to weight cutting, injuries, and physical condition can drastically reduce a wrestler's advantage against skilled universal strikers, even with dominant grappling performances.