UFC 328 featured an extremely rare phenomenon happening twice: fighters who completed 8+ takedowns in championship bouts still lost their fights. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, Khamzat Chimaev (9 takedowns) and Tatsuro Taira (8 takedowns) both lost despite their wrestling success. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with full positional control and nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet was still finished by Joshua Van. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that while elite-level wrestlers maintain 80% win probability, total universalism remains superior. Wrestling is highly energy-intensive and dependent on health factors like weight cutting, injuries, and recovery. The post notes that Chimaev showed potential as a more well-rounded striker and could benefit from developing his stand-up game with proper coaching, while Taira's inability to secure back position against Van and his continued struggles with head movement were highlighted.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
