UFC 328 featured a rare occurrence happening twice in one night: fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira executed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their fights. Taira's takedowns were particularly effective with full positional control and nearly 11 minutes of control time. The analysis suggests that while elite-level wrestling maintains an 80% win probability, total universalism remains superior as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health conditions and circumstances like weight cuts, injuries, and travel. The post notes that Chimaev showed potential as a more well-rounded striker and could benefit from developing his striking game with a proper striking coach.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
