At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed 8+ takedowns in title fights still lost. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5+ takedowns in championship bouts win 81.08% of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira completed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both were defeated. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with full guard passes and nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet was still finished. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts skills trump specialization, as weight cuts, injuries, and other factors can dramatically shift odds against pure grapplers facing well-rounded strikers. The results highlight the importance of universalism in modern MMA.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
