At UFC 328, an unusual occurrence happened twice when fighters who executed 8 or more takedowns in championship bouts still lost their fights. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5+ takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira defied these odds, landing 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but losing their championship bouts. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with full positional control for nearly 11 minutes, yet was still decisively finished. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain roughly 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts versatility is superior, as wrestling is highly energy-intensive and vulnerable to variables like weight cutting issues, injuries, and travel. The analysis suggests Chimaev showed potential as a more well-rounded fighter and would benefit from developing his striking game with better coaching, utilizing his physical advantages like reach, jab, knockout power, and push kicks rather than relying primarily on wrestling.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
