UFC 328 saw rare double occurrence of fighters losing despite 8+ takedowns

At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who executed eight or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, fighters who land five or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with seven or more win 83% of the time. However, Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests this highlights that while elite wrestling maintains high win probability, total well-rounded skills matter most. Factors like weight cutting issues, injuries, travel, and cardio can dramatically shift a wrestler's odds from 80% to 20% against skilled strikers. The post notes that Chimaev showed potential as a more complete fighter with his striking, landing a good jab that broke Strickland's nose, and suggests he should develop more diverse striking to complement his wrestling.