At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice when fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who complete 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira landed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their fights. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain approximately 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts universalism remains superior. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, and cardio can dramatically shift a wrestler's chances against skilled striker-grapplers. The analysis suggests Chimaev should develop a more balanced striking game to complement his wrestling, noting he has the physical tools including an effective jab, knockout power, and speed.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
