At UFC 328, an unusual statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5+ takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8 with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both lost their championship fights. The analysis suggests that even elite-level wrestlers maintain 80% win probability, but total universalism remains superior to wrestling-heavy approaches. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, and opponent skill can dramatically shift odds against pure wrestlers. The post advocates for Chimaev to develop a more well-rounded striking game, noting he has the physical tools and knockout power but needs better striking coaching and strategy. Regarding Taira, despite multiple takedowns and long control periods, he never achieved his specialty back mount position against Kai Asakura and continues struggling with head movement in striking exchanges.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
