Charles Oliveira has assessed Arman Tsarukyan's chances against Ilia Topuria, stating he believes Tsarukyan has a real path to victory. Oliveira warned that trading strikes with Topuria is dangerous, as Topuria could land a knockout, but noted that Tsarukyan's recent pattern of applying pressure and transitioning to the mat could dictate the fight's terms. Oliveira also acknowledged that his own key mistake in his loss to Topuria was being too reckless in the standup.
Charles Oliveira has offered a detailed breakdown of how he believes Arman Tsarukyan can defeat lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, pointing to the grappling game as the key to unseating "El Matador."
Oliveira, ranked third at lightweight with a 37-11-0 record, speaks with firsthand authority on the subject. The 36-year-old Brazilian veteran out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima has faced Topuria himself, and he acknowledged that his own downfall in that bout came from being too reckless in the standup. With a reach of 74 inches and a submission rate of 2.6 attempts per 15 minutes across his career, Oliveira knows better than most how a fight with Topuria can unravel when a fighter stays on the feet and gets drawn into a striking exchange.
Topuria, the current lightweight champion ranked first pound-for-pound, carries a 17-1-0 record and generates 4.81 significant strikes per minute — a pace that makes him one of the most dangerous finishers in the division. The 29-year-old Spaniard's knockout power means the margin for error in a standup battle is essentially zero for any opponent.
Tsarukyan, also 29 and the top-ranked contender at 155 pounds, presents a different profile than most challengers Topuria has faced. The Russian fighter out of American Top Team averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, a rate that dwarfs Topuria's 1.96. Oliveira's assessment centers on that gap — Tsarukyan's recent habit of pressing forward and dragging fights to the canvas could, in Oliveira's view, strip Topuria of his most dangerous weapon.
Why it matters
- Oliveira's first-hand experience against Topuria lends credibility to his tactical read
- Tsarukyan's takedown volume is the highest of any fighter in this conversation, making the blueprint plausible on paper
- A grappling-heavy approach would force Topuria, who averages just over one submission attempt per 15 minutes, into unfamiliar defensive territory
- The lightweight title picture is crowded, and how Tsarukyan approaches the fight stylistically will likely define the outcome
