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UFC Record Breakdown
This one's got the MMA world buzzing. Dricus Du Plessis is moving up from his recent middleweight title loss to Khamzat Chimaev to face Kamaru Usman, who's making the jump to 185 pounds for the first time. Du Plessis opened as a massive favorite, which tells you how people see Usman's move up in weight. The South African pushed back hard on critics saying he should've fought Imavov instead, pointing out he's already beaten Sean Strickland twice and has no interest in another pure striker. Usman's coming off a huge win over Joaquin Buckley back in June, landing 137 strikes and controlling nearly 13 minutes in a five round decision.
If Du Plessis is going to get the finish, it happens in rounds two or three when his size and power start wearing on Usman.
That was at welterweight though. Now he's stepping up to middleweight, and everyone's wondering how his body handles the extra weight. The Nigerian Nightmare hasn't looked quite the same since that head kick from Leon Edwards back at UFC 278, dropping three of his last four before the Buckley bounce back. Du Plessis is the bigger, more natural middleweight here. Before losing to Chimaev in August, he was on a tear, submitting Adesanya with a rear naked choke and grinding out decisions over Strickland.
He's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid wrestling. Usman's wrestling is elite, no question, but he's never had to deal with someone Du Plessis's size who can also grapple at a high level. The real question is whether Usman's championship experience and pressure can overcome the size disadvantage. Du Plessis has been vocal about this fight being more interesting than another striker, and fans are split on whether Usman's move up is genius or desperation.
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Islam Makhachev finish map
Islam Makhachev breakdown
Islam Makhachev's recent form
This one's got the MMA world buzzing. Dricus Du Plessis is moving up from his recent middleweight title loss to Khamzat Chimaev to face Kamaru Usman, who's making the jump to 185 pounds for the first time. Du Plessis opened as a massive favorite, which tells you how people see Usman's move up in weight. The South African pushed back hard on critics saying he should've fought Imavov instead, pointing out he's already beaten Sean Strickland twice and has no interest in another pure striker. Usman's coming off a huge win over Joaquin Buckley back in June, landing 137 strikes and controlling nearly 13 minutes in a five round decision.
If Du Plessis is going to get the finish, it happens in rounds two or three when his size and power start wearing on Usman.
That was at welterweight though. Now he's stepping up to middleweight, and everyone's wondering how his body handles the extra weight. The Nigerian Nightmare hasn't looked quite the same since that head kick from Leon Edwards back at UFC 278, dropping three of his last four before the Buckley bounce back. Du Plessis is the bigger, more natural middleweight here. Before losing to Chimaev in August, he was on a tear, submitting Adesanya with a rear naked choke and grinding out decisions over Strickland.
He's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid wrestling. Usman's wrestling is elite, no question, but he's never had to deal with someone Du Plessis's size who can also grapple at a high level. The real question is whether Usman's championship experience and pressure can overcome the size disadvantage. Du Plessis has been vocal about this fight being more interesting than another striker, and fans are split on whether Usman's move up is genius or desperation.
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Kamaru Usman finish map
Kamaru Usman breakdown
Kamaru Usman's recent form
Pace delta
+1.7 significant strikes/min
Kamaru Usman averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute while Islam Makhachev sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Islam Makhachev vs Kamaru Usman odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
