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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Brandon Moreno was supposed to face Asu Almabayev in Mexico City, but a hand injury changed everything. Now he's getting Lone'er Kavanagh on about three weeks' notice, and honestly? This might be more dangerous. Kavanagh's got four knockouts in nine wins and he's a legit prospect at No. 15. The kid's taking this short notice call up and jumping straight into the deep end against a former champ in front of a hostile crowd.
If Kavanagh's gonna land that power shot, it'll come early before Moreno's pressure and cardio take over in rounds two and three.
Moreno's had a rough stretch lately. That knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira back in December was brutal, punches from back control in round two. Before that, he'd put together back to back wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi, both five round decisions where he showed that championship cardio. The Erceg fight was in Mexico City too, landed 95 strikes and got the nod on all three cards. But that Taira loss stings, and now he needs to bounce back at home.
Kavanagh's been solid in his UFC run so far. Beat Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa with unanimous decisions, showing decent striking volume and some wrestling chops. But then Charles Johnson caught him with a punch in Shanghai last August, second round knockout. This is a massive step up in competition, fighting a former flyweight king who's desperate to get back in the title picture. The crowd's gonna be insane for Moreno, and Kavanagh's gotta deal with that pressure on top of everything else.
Brandon Moreno finish map
Brandon Moreno breakdown
Brandon Moreno's recent form
Brandon Moreno was supposed to face Asu Almabayev in Mexico City, but a hand injury changed everything. Now he's getting Lone'er Kavanagh on about three weeks' notice, and honestly? This might be more dangerous. Kavanagh's got four knockouts in nine wins and he's a legit prospect at No. 15. The kid's taking this short notice call up and jumping straight into the deep end against a former champ in front of a hostile crowd.
If Kavanagh's gonna land that power shot, it'll come early before Moreno's pressure and cardio take over in rounds two and three.
Moreno's had a rough stretch lately. That knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira back in December was brutal, punches from back control in round two. Before that, he'd put together back to back wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi, both five round decisions where he showed that championship cardio. The Erceg fight was in Mexico City too, landed 95 strikes and got the nod on all three cards. But that Taira loss stings, and now he needs to bounce back at home.
Kavanagh's been solid in his UFC run so far. Beat Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa with unanimous decisions, showing decent striking volume and some wrestling chops. But then Charles Johnson caught him with a punch in Shanghai last August, second round knockout. This is a massive step up in competition, fighting a former flyweight king who's desperate to get back in the title picture. The crowd's gonna be insane for Moreno, and Kavanagh's gotta deal with that pressure on top of everything else.
Lone'er Kavanagh finish map
Lone'er Kavanagh breakdown
Lone'er Kavanagh's recent form
Pace delta
+0.3 significant strikes/min
Lone'er Kavanagh averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Brandon Moreno sits at 4.0.
AI confidence
87%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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