AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
This bantamweight scrap has serious title implications written all over it. Umar Nurmagomedov's coming off that tough loss to Merab at UFC 311 - his first L in the UFC - but before that he was looking unstoppable, beating Cory Sandhagen over five rounds and putting on a grappling clinic against Mario Bautista. Meanwhile, Figueiredo's had a rough go since moving up from flyweight. He dropped a decision to Petr Yan, then got stopped by Sandhagen with that nasty knee injury, but bounced back with a split decision over Montel Jackson in Brazil. Here's the thing - this is a classic grappler versus former champ matchup.
Umar's got that Eagles MMA pedigree and his wrestling is absolutely suffocating. Remember when he hit 11 takedowns on Bautista and controlled him for over 10 minutes? That's the kind of pressure he brings. Fig's been a world champion at flyweight, submitted Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300, and his scrambles are wild. But he's struggled with the bigger, stronger grapplers at 135.
The big question is whether Figueiredo can keep this standing and make it a dog fight. His striking is dangerous and he's got that Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to fall back on, but Umar's takedowns are relentless. Fans are wondering if this is Umar's bounce-back moment or if Fig can pull off the upset and crash back into title talks. Both guys need this one badly.


UFC Record Breakdown
If Umar can't get it done early, the championship rounds could get real interesting as Figueiredo's toughness and experience take over.

Umar Nurmagomedov finish map

Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown
This bantamweight scrap has serious title implications written all over it. Umar Nurmagomedov's coming off that tough loss to Merab at UFC 311 - his first L in the UFC - but before that he was looking unstoppable, beating Cory Sandhagen over five rounds and putting on a grappling clinic against Mario Bautista. Meanwhile, Figueiredo's had a rough go since moving up from flyweight. He dropped a decision to Petr Yan, then got stopped by Sandhagen with that nasty knee injury, but bounced back with a split decision over Montel Jackson in Brazil. Here's the thing - this is a classic grappler versus former champ matchup.
Umar's got that Eagles MMA pedigree and his wrestling is absolutely suffocating. Remember when he hit 11 takedowns on Bautista and controlled him for over 10 minutes? That's the kind of pressure he brings. Fig's been a world champion at flyweight, submitted Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300, and his scrambles are wild. But he's struggled with the bigger, stronger grapplers at 135.
The big question is whether Figueiredo can keep this standing and make it a dog fight. His striking is dangerous and he's got that Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to fall back on, but Umar's takedowns are relentless. Fans are wondering if this is Umar's bounce-back moment or if Fig can pull off the upset and crash back into title talks. Both guys need this one badly.
If Umar can't get it done early, the championship rounds could get real interesting as Figueiredo's toughness and experience take over.

Deiveson Figueiredo finish map

Deiveson Figueiredo breakdown
Pace delta
+1.3 significant strikes/min
Umar Nurmagomedov averages 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Deiveson Figueiredo sits at 2.8.
AI confidence
80%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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