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UFC Record Breakdown
Here's the thing about this fight. Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan train together at American Top Team, and now they're headlining a UFC Fight Night against each other on April 4th at the UFC Apex. That's the kind of situation that makes fight week awkward as hell. Moicano's coming off two straight losses, including that title shot against Islam Makhachev where he got caught in a D'Arce choke at UFC 311, then a decision loss to Beneil Dariush in June. Meanwhile, Duncan's been on an absolute tear with four straight finishes, including that slick anaconda choke on Terrance McKinney back in December. Moicano's the veteran here with serious skills.
Duncan's early submission hunting could clash with Moicano's experience in the first two rounds, but if it goes deep, the veteran's cardio and volume striking take over.
Remember when he beat Benoit Saint Denis in Paris with that doctor's stoppage? Dude landed 72 strikes at 73% accuracy and just picked him apart. Before that, he knocked out Jalin Turner at UFC 300 with ground and pound from mount. The Brazilian's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid grappling. Duncan's nickname is "The Problem" for a reason. The Scottish fighter from ATT has finished all four of his recent wins by submission.
That guillotine choke he hit on Jordan Vucenic in London, the one against Bolaji Oki in Paris, and most recently choking out McKinney in two and a half minutes. He's hunting necks every time he steps in there. This is basically a must win situation for Moicano to get back in the title picture, while Duncan's trying to break into the top 15 with the biggest name on his resume. The UFC officially confirmed this as a five round lightweight main event for Vegas 116, making it one of the most intriguing teammate versus teammate matchups of the year.
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Renato Moicano breakdown
Renato Moicano's recent form
Here's the thing about this fight. Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan train together at American Top Team, and now they're headlining a UFC Fight Night against each other on April 4th at the UFC Apex. That's the kind of situation that makes fight week awkward as hell. Moicano's coming off two straight losses, including that title shot against Islam Makhachev where he got caught in a D'Arce choke at UFC 311, then a decision loss to Beneil Dariush in June. Meanwhile, Duncan's been on an absolute tear with four straight finishes, including that slick anaconda choke on Terrance McKinney back in December. Moicano's the veteran here with serious skills.
Duncan's early submission hunting could clash with Moicano's experience in the first two rounds, but if it goes deep, the veteran's cardio and volume striking take over.
Remember when he beat Benoit Saint Denis in Paris with that doctor's stoppage? Dude landed 72 strikes at 73% accuracy and just picked him apart. Before that, he knocked out Jalin Turner at UFC 300 with ground and pound from mount. The Brazilian's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid grappling. Duncan's nickname is "The Problem" for a reason. The Scottish fighter from ATT has finished all four of his recent wins by submission.
That guillotine choke he hit on Jordan Vucenic in London, the one against Bolaji Oki in Paris, and most recently choking out McKinney in two and a half minutes. He's hunting necks every time he steps in there. This is basically a must win situation for Moicano to get back in the title picture, while Duncan's trying to break into the top 15 with the biggest name on his resume. The UFC officially confirmed this as a five round lightweight main event for Vegas 116, making it one of the most intriguing teammate versus teammate matchups of the year.
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Chris Duncan finish map
Chris Duncan breakdown
Chris Duncan's recent form
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Chris Duncan averages 4.6 significant strikes per minute while Renato Moicano sits at 4.2.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
