AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Here's the thing about this fight. Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan train together at American Top Team, and now they're headlining a UFC Fight Night against each other. That's the kind of situation that makes fight week awkward as hell. Moicano's coming off two straight losses, including that title shot against Islam Makhachev where he got caught in a D'Arce choke at UFC 311, then a decision loss to Beneil Dariush in June. Meanwhile, Duncan's been on an absolute tear with four straight finishes, including that slick anaconda choke on Terrance McKinney back in December.
Duncan's early submission hunting could clash with Moicano's experience in the first two rounds, but if it goes deep, the veteran's cardio and volume striking take over.
Moicano's the veteran here with serious skills. Remember when he beat Benoit Saint Denis in Paris with that doctor's stoppage? Dude landed 72 strikes at 73% accuracy and just picked him apart. Before that, he knocked out Jalin Turner at UFC 300 with ground and pound from mount. The Brazilian's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid grappling.
Duncan's nickname is "The Problem" for a reason. The Scottish fighter from ATT has finished all four of his recent wins by submission. That guillotine choke he hit on Jordan Vucenic in London, the one against Bolaji Oki in Paris, and most recently choking out McKinney in two and a half minutes. He's hunting necks every time he steps in there. This is basically a must win situation for Moicano to get back in the title picture, while Duncan's trying to break into the top 15 with the biggest name on his resume.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysisRenato Moicano finish map

Renato Moicano breakdown
Renato Moicano's recent form
Here's the thing about this fight. Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan train together at American Top Team, and now they're headlining a UFC Fight Night against each other. That's the kind of situation that makes fight week awkward as hell. Moicano's coming off two straight losses, including that title shot against Islam Makhachev where he got caught in a D'Arce choke at UFC 311, then a decision loss to Beneil Dariush in June. Meanwhile, Duncan's been on an absolute tear with four straight finishes, including that slick anaconda choke on Terrance McKinney back in December.
Duncan's early submission hunting could clash with Moicano's experience in the first two rounds, but if it goes deep, the veteran's cardio and volume striking take over.
Moicano's the veteran here with serious skills. Remember when he beat Benoit Saint Denis in Paris with that doctor's stoppage? Dude landed 72 strikes at 73% accuracy and just picked him apart. Before that, he knocked out Jalin Turner at UFC 300 with ground and pound from mount. The Brazilian's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid grappling.
Duncan's nickname is "The Problem" for a reason. The Scottish fighter from ATT has finished all four of his recent wins by submission. That guillotine choke he hit on Jordan Vucenic in London, the one against Bolaji Oki in Paris, and most recently choking out McKinney in two and a half minutes. He's hunting necks every time he steps in there. This is basically a must win situation for Moicano to get back in the title picture, while Duncan's trying to break into the top 15 with the biggest name on his resume.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysis
Chris Duncan finish map

Chris Duncan breakdown
Chris Duncan's recent form
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Chris Duncan averages 4.6 significant strikes per minute while Renato Moicano sits at 4.2.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 326 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 326 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
