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UFC Record Breakdown
Brazilian bantamweight battle right here. Karol Rosa's been grinding in the UFC since 2019, bouncing between wins and losses but always showing up ready to work. She just beat Nora Cornolle back in August with a unanimous decision, landing 190 strikes and controlling over 11 minutes. Luana Santos is riding serious momentum though. She's won three straight, including that slick keylock finish over Tainara Lisboa in May and a rear naked choke of Mariya Agapova in just over three minutes last July. Here's the thing about this matchup. Rosa's got the experience edge and throws crazy volume.
If Santos gets top position in rounds two or three, that's when the submission danger gets real.
She landed 204 strikes against Irene Aldana back in 2023, even in a loss. She's tough as hell and will push a pace for 15 minutes straight. Santos is the submission threat everyone's watching for. That keylock over Lisboa was nasty, and she's finished two of her last three. When she gets you down, she's dangerous as hell. Rosa's striking output is legit scary. She's hit 85% accuracy in her last win and just keeps coming forward.
But Santos has been perfect on takedowns lately, going 2 for 2 against Lisboa with nearly eight minutes of control time. If Santos can get this to the mat, Rosa's in trouble. If it stays standing, Rosa's volume could be the difference. Santos hasn't tasted a loss since that Casey O'Neill fight in August 2024. Rosa's split her last four. Momentum matters, and right now Santos has it rolling.
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Karol Rosa finish map
Karol Rosa breakdown
Karol Rosa's recent form
Brazilian bantamweight battle right here. Karol Rosa's been grinding in the UFC since 2019, bouncing between wins and losses but always showing up ready to work. She just beat Nora Cornolle back in August with a unanimous decision, landing 190 strikes and controlling over 11 minutes. Luana Santos is riding serious momentum though. She's won three straight, including that slick keylock finish over Tainara Lisboa in May and a rear naked choke of Mariya Agapova in just over three minutes last July. Here's the thing about this matchup. Rosa's got the experience edge and throws crazy volume.
If Santos gets top position in rounds two or three, that's when the submission danger gets real.
She landed 204 strikes against Irene Aldana back in 2023, even in a loss. She's tough as hell and will push a pace for 15 minutes straight. Santos is the submission threat everyone's watching for. That keylock over Lisboa was nasty, and she's finished two of her last three. When she gets you down, she's dangerous as hell. Rosa's striking output is legit scary. She's hit 85% accuracy in her last win and just keeps coming forward.
But Santos has been perfect on takedowns lately, going 2 for 2 against Lisboa with nearly eight minutes of control time. If Santos can get this to the mat, Rosa's in trouble. If it stays standing, Rosa's volume could be the difference. Santos hasn't tasted a loss since that Casey O'Neill fight in August 2024. Rosa's split her last four. Momentum matters, and right now Santos has it rolling.
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Luana Santos finish map
Luana Santos breakdown
Luana Santos's recent form
Pace delta
+3.2 significant strikes/min
Karol Rosa averages 6.2 significant strikes per minute while Luana Santos sits at 3.0.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
