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Bia Mesquita is straight up dangerous right now. The Lady GOAT has finished both her UFC fights with rear naked chokes, and she's not wasting time doing it. She choked out Montse Rendon in just over two minutes back in March, then did the same thing to Irina Alekseeva in October. That's two straight fights where she's put people to sleep, and the scary part? She's landing strikes at 78% and hitting takedowns at will before locking in the choke.
If Mesquita gets the takedown in rounds one or two, expect the choke to come quick.
Melissa Mullins is coming in on a tough stretch though. She dropped a decision to Daria Zhelezniakova last June, getting outstruck over three rounds despite landing 77 shots herself. Before that, she had a nice knockout win over Klaudia Sygula, finishing with punches from back control in the second round. But here's the thing, that back control finish might haunt her against someone like Mesquita who lives in those positions. This is a nightmare matchup for Mullins on paper.
Mesquita's grappling is world class, and once she gets you down, she's got that suffocating control that just breaks people. Mullins showed decent takedown defense against Zhelezniakova, stuffing half the attempts, but Mesquita is a different level of pressure. The English fighter needs to keep this standing and make it ugly, because if Mesquita gets her back, we all know how this story ends.
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Melissa Mullins's recent form
Bia Mesquita is straight up dangerous right now. The Lady GOAT has finished both her UFC fights with rear naked chokes, and she's not wasting time doing it. She choked out Montse Rendon in just over two minutes back in March, then did the same thing to Irina Alekseeva in October. That's two straight fights where she's put people to sleep, and the scary part? She's landing strikes at 78% and hitting takedowns at will before locking in the choke.
If Mesquita gets the takedown in rounds one or two, expect the choke to come quick.
Melissa Mullins is coming in on a tough stretch though. She dropped a decision to Daria Zhelezniakova last June, getting outstruck over three rounds despite landing 77 shots herself. Before that, she had a nice knockout win over Klaudia Sygula, finishing with punches from back control in the second round. But here's the thing, that back control finish might haunt her against someone like Mesquita who lives in those positions. This is a nightmare matchup for Mullins on paper.
Mesquita's grappling is world class, and once she gets you down, she's got that suffocating control that just breaks people. Mullins showed decent takedown defense against Zhelezniakova, stuffing half the attempts, but Mesquita is a different level of pressure. The English fighter needs to keep this standing and make it ugly, because if Mesquita gets her back, we all know how this story ends.
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Bia Mesquita finish map
Bia Mesquita breakdown
Bia Mesquita's recent form
Pace delta
+2.4 significant strikes/min
Bia Mesquita averages 5.8 significant strikes per minute while Melissa Mullins sits at 3.4.
AI confidence
89%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Melissa Mullins vs Bia Mesquita odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
