UFC Record Breakdown
Charles Radtke is riding a wild comeback wave right now. After getting absolutely starched by Mike Malott in Montreal back in May, Chuck Buffalo bounced back huge in November with a slick third round rear naked choke over Daniel Frunza. That win came after he landed 163 strikes and controlled over 11 minutes, showing he's got the gas tank and grappling to grind when he needs to. Francisco Prado is in a rough spot though, dropping three straight decisions including losses to Jake Matthews and Nikolay Veretennikov this year. Here's the thing about Radtke.
If Radtke's gonna get it done, expect fireworks in the first five minutes when his confidence is highest.
When he's on, he's dangerous as hell. That first round knockout of Matthew Semelsberger in November 2024 was nasty, just 51 seconds of violence. But he's also been finished twice by killers like Carlos Prates (that body knee was brutal) and Malott. Prado's got some pop too, remember when he finished Ottman Azaitar from the guard back in 2023. But lately he's been stuck in decision losses, throwing volume but not getting the finishes.
The matchup favors Radtke's momentum and finishing ability. Prado's been in there with tough guys but he's 0 for 3 in his last outings, all going to the scorecards. Radtke's shown he can end fights both standing and on the mat. One guy's trying to stop the bleeding, the other's looking to keep his streak alive.
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Francisco Prado breakdown
Francisco Prado's recent form
Charles Radtke is riding a wild comeback wave right now. After getting absolutely starched by Mike Malott in Montreal back in May, Chuck Buffalo bounced back huge in November with a slick third round rear naked choke over Daniel Frunza. That win came after he landed 163 strikes and controlled over 11 minutes, showing he's got the gas tank and grappling to grind when he needs to. Francisco Prado is in a rough spot though, dropping three straight decisions including losses to Jake Matthews and Nikolay Veretennikov this year. Here's the thing about Radtke.
If Radtke's gonna get it done, expect fireworks in the first five minutes when his confidence is highest.
When he's on, he's dangerous as hell. That first round knockout of Matthew Semelsberger in November 2024 was nasty, just 51 seconds of violence. But he's also been finished twice by killers like Carlos Prates (that body knee was brutal) and Malott. Prado's got some pop too, remember when he finished Ottman Azaitar from the guard back in 2023. But lately he's been stuck in decision losses, throwing volume but not getting the finishes.
The matchup favors Radtke's momentum and finishing ability. Prado's been in there with tough guys but he's 0 for 3 in his last outings, all going to the scorecards. Radtke's shown he can end fights both standing and on the mat. One guy's trying to stop the bleeding, the other's looking to keep his streak alive.
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Charles Radtke finish map

Charles Radtke breakdown
Charles Radtke's recent form
Pace delta
+1.3 significant strikes/min
Francisco Prado averages 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Charles Radtke sits at 2.8.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Francisco Prado vs Charles Radtke odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.