UFC Fight Night
Sep 12, 2026In 53 daysDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
Back to articles

Fighter Performance Comparison

POWERED BY AGENTMMA.COM

Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Yousri Belgaroui 6.1 SLpM, Kelvin Gastelum 3.7 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Yousri Belgaroui 64%, Kelvin Gastelum 42%
  • Damage Avoidance: Yousri Belgaroui 2.2 abs/min, Kelvin Gastelum 3.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Yousri Belgaroui 100%, Kelvin Gastelum 34%
  • Takedown Defense: Yousri Belgaroui 66%, Kelvin Gastelum 60%
  • Submission Threat: Yousri Belgaroui —, Kelvin Gastelum 0.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Yousri Belgaroui
Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Yousri Belgaroui
2-0UFC Record
KO/TKO (100%)
Kelvin Gastelum
14-11UFC Record
KO/TKO (15%)
Sub (10%)
Decision (45%)
Losses (30%)
No Contest (1)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy64%
Grappling Efficiency98%
Takedown Defense66%
Cardio & Endurance85%
Fight IQ90%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense60%
Cardio & Endurance76%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Yousri Belgaroui
Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum is trying to stop the bleeding after dropping two straight, and Yousri Belgaroui is riding high with back to back knockout wins. Gastelum's last outing was rough. Vicente Luque caught him in an anaconda choke in the first round at UFC 327, and before that Joe Pyfer outpointed him over three rounds. The former title challenger needs this one badly. Meanwhile, Belgaroui just knocked out Mansur Abdul-Malik with a nasty knee in the clinch and finished Azamat Bekoev with punches in round three.

Key Storylines
  • Gastelum desperate to snap two fight skid
  • Belgaroui hunting third straight knockout finish
  • Experience versus surging momentum at middleweight
Finishing Window

If this fight makes it to the third round, watch for Belgaroui to turn up the heat in the clinch where he's been finding his finishes.

The Tunisian striker is building real momentum. Here's the thing about this matchup. Gastelum still has that dangerous left hand and solid boxing fundamentals that got him to the top of the division. When he beat Daniel Rodriguez in Saudi Arabia, he landed 123 strikes and went 4 for 4 on takedowns, showing he can still put rounds together. But Belgaroui is hunting for finishes and he's found them late in fights when guys start to fade.

That clinch work is legit dangerous. The big question is whether Gastelum can use his experience and wrestling to grind this out, or if Belgaroui's finishing instincts catch up to him. Gastelum's been submitted twice in his last five fights, so if this hits the mat in a scramble, things could get dicey. Belgaroui hasn't faced anyone near Gastelum's level yet, but confidence is a hell of a drug in this sport.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum Stats Comparison

Age
34
34
Height
6'6" (198 cm)
5'9" (175 cm)
Weight
185 lbs (84 kg)
185 lbs (84 kg)
Reach
79" (201 cm)
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum AI Analysis

Pace delta

+2.4 significant strikes/min

Yousri Belgaroui averages 6.1 significant strikes per minute while Kelvin Gastelum sits at 3.7.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Yousri Belgaroui and Kelvin Gastelum, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

Model score and full reasoning inside

Belgaroui vs Gastelum odds

Live Polymarket odds for Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Related UFC AI Insights

More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events