UFC Fight Night
Sep 12, 2026In 6 daysDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Yousri Belgaroui 6.1 SLpM, Kelvin Gastelum 3.7 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Yousri Belgaroui 64%, Kelvin Gastelum 42%
  • Damage Avoidance: Yousri Belgaroui 2.2 abs/min, Kelvin Gastelum 3.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Yousri Belgaroui 100%, Kelvin Gastelum 34%
  • Takedown Defense: Yousri Belgaroui 66%, Kelvin Gastelum 60%
  • Submission Threat: Yousri Belgaroui —, Kelvin Gastelum 0.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Yousri Belgaroui
Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Yousri Belgaroui
2-0UFC Record
KO/TKO (100%)
Kelvin Gastelum
14-11UFC Record
KO/TKO (15%)
Sub (10%)
Decision (45%)
Losses (30%)
No Contest (1)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy64%
Grappling Efficiency98%
Takedown Defense66%
Cardio & Endurance85%
Fight IQ90%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense60%
Cardio & Endurance76%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Yousri Belgaroui
Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum always gives fans something to argue about, and this matchup adds a crazy physical puzzle. Across his last 5 fights, he beat Dustin Stoltzfus and Daniel Rodriguez by unanimous decision, while Vicente Luque and Sean Brady submitted him and Joe Pyfer took a unanimous decision. Yousri Belgaroui enters with 2 straight stoppages in R3, one through punches at distance and the other through a nasty clinch knee. Here’s the thing. Both men are 34, yet they look like they belong in different size classes.

Key Storylines
  • Gastelum looks to steady himself after Luque's first round submission
  • Belgaroui brings two straight stoppages and serious late fight danger
  • A massive range gap shapes every exchange at middleweight
Finishing Window

The fight should open up late in R2 or early in R3, when the work at range and the clinch exchanges start taking a real toll.

Gastelum stands 69 inches with a 71 inch reach and fights southpaw, while the orthodox Belgaroui stands 78 inches with a 79 inch reach. Gastelum has a mountain of open space to cross, and Belgaroui has to keep that space without letting the shorter man turn it into a phone booth fight. Gastelum needs to mix his entries, threaten level changes, and make the taller striker reset. Every scramble carries tension, because Luque found the anaconda in R1 at 4:08 and Brady found the kimura in R3. Belgaroui has already shown real patience in the UFC.

Both wins broke open in R3, against Mansur Abdul-Malik at 3:39 and Azamat Bekoev at 0:55, so he knows how to stay calm until an opening appears. That is what makes this so fun. Can Gastelum get inside clean and make it ugly, or will Belgaroui keep finding sharper looks as the minutes pile up?

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Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum Stats Comparison

Age
34
34
Height
6'6" (198 cm)
5'9" (175 cm)
Weight
185 lbs (84 kg)
185 lbs (84 kg)
Reach
79" (201 cm)
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum AI Analysis

Pace delta

+2.4 significant strikes/min

Yousri Belgaroui averages 6.1 significant strikes per minute while Kelvin Gastelum sits at 3.7.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Yousri Belgaroui and Kelvin Gastelum, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Belgaroui vs Gastelum odds

Live Polymarket odds for Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Belgaroui vs Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui vs Kelvin Gastelum is on the UFC Fight Night card on Sep 12, 2026 at Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Belgaroui vs Gastelum: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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