UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Oct 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Tom Aspinall 7.6 SLpM, Ciryl Gane 5.3 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Tom Aspinall 67%, Ciryl Gane 61%
  • Damage Avoidance: Tom Aspinall 3.6 abs/min, Ciryl Gane 2.3 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Tom Aspinall 80%, Ciryl Gane 25%
  • Takedown Defense: Tom Aspinall 100%, Ciryl Gane 47%
  • Submission Threat: Tom Aspinall 1.3 per 15m, Ciryl Gane 0.6 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Tom Aspinall
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Tom Aspinall
8-1UFC Record
KO/TKO (68%)
Sub (23%)
Losses (9%)
No Contest (1)
Ciryl Gane
11-2UFC Record
KO/TKO (40%)
Sub (16%)
Decision (32%)
Losses (13%)
No Contest (1)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy67%
Grappling Efficiency90%
Takedown Defense100%
Cardio & Endurance70%
Fight IQ95%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy61%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense47%
Cardio & Endurance78%
Fight IQ95%

Last Opponents

Tom Aspinall
Ciryl Gane

Here's the thing: these two already threw down in Abu Dhabi back in October, and it ended in the most frustrating way possible. Aspinall was landing clean, Gane was moving slick, and then an eye poke at 4:35 of the first round shut the whole thing down. What looked accidental turned into a major controversy when Aspinall accused Gane of intentional cheating, saying Gane had his fingers pointed at his eyes in nearly every exchange. Fans are still pissed because we got robbed of what was shaping up to be an absolute banger. The aftermath got messy. Aspinall was diagnosed with bilateral traumatic Brown's syndrome and still hasn't been medically cleared to train or compete. He might need surgery. Dana White caught heat for suggesting Aspinall didn't want to continue, which fired up the British heavyweight even more.

Key Storylines
  • Unfinished business after controversial no-contest in Abu Dhabi
  • Aspinall's knockout power versus Gane's elite movement and range
  • Heavyweight title on the line in must-see rematch
Finishing Window

If this fight happens, expect fireworks early - both guys have proven they can end it in the first round, and neither wants to leave it to the judges this time.

Aspinall posted medical paperwork proving the injury was legit and called out critics as "fucking losers" on social media. White later clarified at the UFC 323 presser that he never said anything negative about Aspinall and expects him to heal up and defend the title in 2025. The communication breakdown between fighter and promoter added another layer to an already heated situation. What makes this matchup so wild is the speed factor at heavyweight. Aspinall's been smoking dudes in under a minute. Remember when he flatlined Sergei Pavlovich in 69 seconds at MSG, or that 60 second destruction of Curtis Blaydes in Manchester? The guy's a finishing machine. But Gane's got that Muay Thai background and moves like he's two weight classes lighter.

When they fought, Gane was actually landing at 75% and looked comfortable in the pocket before everything went sideways. The technical battle is insane to think about. Aspinall throws heat and closes distance like a freight train, but Gane's footwork and range management are next level. Just look at how he picked apart Serghei Spivac with 110 strikes landed, or how he outworked Alexander Volkov over three rounds in December 2024. Can Gane stay on the outside and point fight his way through five rounds, or does Aspinall's power eventually catch up to him? That's the million dollar question. This is for the heavyweight title, and both guys know they've got unfinished business. The first fight answered nothing, and now the whole division is waiting to see who's really the best heavyweight on the planet.

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Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Stats Comparison

Age
33
36
Height
6'5" (196 cm)
6'4" (193 cm)
Weight
255 lbs (116 kg)
247 lbs (112 kg)
Reach
78" (198 cm)
81" (206 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane AI Analysis

Pace delta

+2.3 significant strikes/min

Tom Aspinall averages 7.6 significant strikes per minute while Ciryl Gane sits at 5.3.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Aspinall vs Gane odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Aspinall vs Gane

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane is on the UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane card on Oct 25, 2025 at Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Aspinall vs Gane: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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