AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
This middleweight scrap has serious stakes written all over it. Borralho was riding high until Imavov handed him his first UFC loss back in September, a unanimous decision that snapped a massive 17 fight streak. Now he's looking to bounce back against a guy who's had an even rougher time lately. De Ridder came into the UFC with massive hype after dominating ONE Championship, but his last fight against Brendan Allen was brutal. His corner stopped it after four rounds, and afterwards he admitted his cardio was completely shot. He's been getting medical tests done trying to figure out what went wrong. Here's the thing though, before that disaster, de Ridder looked legit. He pulled off a split decision over Robert Whittaker and absolutely starched Bo Nickal with a body knee in May. That Nickal win had everyone talking because Bo was supposed to be the next big thing.
If this hits the mat in rounds two or three, someone's getting choked out or ground into dust.
De Ridder's grappling is world class, the kind that makes guys panic when he locks onto them. He choked out Kevin Holland in the first round and submitted Gerald Meerschaert too. The intrigue around this matchup got even more interesting when Israel Adesanya recently revealed he was set to fight de Ridder on short notice last year but had to pull out due to a training injury. Izzy said he was ready to take the fight on just five to six weeks notice, showing the respect de Ridder commands in the division even after his recent setback. Borralho's no slouch either. The Brazilian has slick submissions of his own, like that rear naked choke he got on Michal Oleksiejczuk. He also knocked out Paul Craig and went five hard rounds with Jared Cannonier before the Imavov setback. Both these southpaws can finish fights, but they're also comfortable grinding it out. The big question is which version of de Ridder shows up.
If his gas tank holds, his grappling could be a nightmare for Borralho. This one's locked in for the UFC 326 card on March 7th at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and it's getting major exposure as part of the historic CBS broadcast deal. The fight was officially confirmed in early February and will air on the main card, giving this middleweight clash massive mainstream exposure as the UFC crosses over to network television for the first time under the new Paramount deal. The latest word from both camps sounds encouraging. Borralho's team at Fighting Nerds is optimistic heading into fight week, saying he's healthy after dealing with some issues during the Imavov camp. Meanwhile, de Ridder himself has opened up about feeling much better in this training camp compared to his rushed start in the UFC. He admitted that cramming five fights into 11 months left him completely exhausted, and he's focused on proper recovery this time around for the March showdown.
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Unlock full analysisCaio Borralho finish map

Caio Borralho breakdown
Caio Borralho's recent form
This middleweight scrap has serious stakes written all over it. Borralho was riding high until Imavov handed him his first UFC loss back in September, a unanimous decision that snapped a massive 17 fight streak. Now he's looking to bounce back against a guy who's had an even rougher time lately. De Ridder came into the UFC with massive hype after dominating ONE Championship, but his last fight against Brendan Allen was brutal. His corner stopped it after four rounds, and afterwards he admitted his cardio was completely shot. He's been getting medical tests done trying to figure out what went wrong. Here's the thing though, before that disaster, de Ridder looked legit. He pulled off a split decision over Robert Whittaker and absolutely starched Bo Nickal with a body knee in May. That Nickal win had everyone talking because Bo was supposed to be the next big thing.
If this hits the mat in rounds two or three, someone's getting choked out or ground into dust.
De Ridder's grappling is world class, the kind that makes guys panic when he locks onto them. He choked out Kevin Holland in the first round and submitted Gerald Meerschaert too. The intrigue around this matchup got even more interesting when Israel Adesanya recently revealed he was set to fight de Ridder on short notice last year but had to pull out due to a training injury. Izzy said he was ready to take the fight on just five to six weeks notice, showing the respect de Ridder commands in the division even after his recent setback. Borralho's no slouch either. The Brazilian has slick submissions of his own, like that rear naked choke he got on Michal Oleksiejczuk. He also knocked out Paul Craig and went five hard rounds with Jared Cannonier before the Imavov setback. Both these southpaws can finish fights, but they're also comfortable grinding it out. The big question is which version of de Ridder shows up.
If his gas tank holds, his grappling could be a nightmare for Borralho. This one's locked in for the UFC 326 card on March 7th at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and it's getting major exposure as part of the historic CBS broadcast deal. The fight was officially confirmed in early February and will air on the main card, giving this middleweight clash massive mainstream exposure as the UFC crosses over to network television for the first time under the new Paramount deal. The latest word from both camps sounds encouraging. Borralho's team at Fighting Nerds is optimistic heading into fight week, saying he's healthy after dealing with some issues during the Imavov camp. Meanwhile, de Ridder himself has opened up about feeling much better in this training camp compared to his rushed start in the UFC. He admitted that cramming five fights into 11 months left him completely exhausted, and he's focused on proper recovery this time around for the March showdown.
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Unlock full analysisReinier Ridder finish map

Reinier Ridder breakdown
Reinier Ridder's recent form
Pace delta
+1.2 significant strikes/min
Caio Borralho averages 3.4 significant strikes per minute while Reinier Ridder sits at 2.2.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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