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UFC Record Breakdown
Edgar Chairez is coming home to Mexico City with serious momentum. After that slick rear naked choke of CJ Vergara back in March, Puro Chicali reminded everyone why he's dangerous when he gets his hands on your neck. The guy's got two first round submission wins in his last three fights, and both times he didn't even need two and a half minutes to get it done. That's the kind of finishing instinct that gets fans hyped. Felipe Bunes is walking into hostile territory after a tough stretch. He got caught in an armbar by Jose Johnson in under two minutes back in January 2025, then dropped a decision to Rafael Estevam in August.
If this hits the mat in round one, Chairez could have Bunes in serious trouble before the crowd even settles in.
The Brazilian's been in some wars though. That fight with Joshua Van where he landed 57 strikes before getting stopped showed he's got volume and heart, but Chairez is a different puzzle. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are orthodox flyweights who love to grapple, but Chairez has been way more efficient with his finishes lately. Bunes throws more volume and isn't afraid to get into firefights, but that aggressive style could play right into the Mexican's submission game. When Chairez smells blood, he doesn't waste time.
Remember that triangle choke from bottom guard against Daniel Lacerda? That's high level jiu jitsu under pressure. The Mexico City crowd is going to be absolutely electric for their guy. This bout survived the recent main event shuffle that hit the UFC Mexico card, and now Chairez gets to showcase his grappling wizardry in front of his home fans on February 28. Bunes needs to keep this standing and make it ugly, but one scramble could be all Chairez needs.
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Felipe Bunes breakdown
Felipe Bunes's recent form
Edgar Chairez is coming home to Mexico City with serious momentum. After that slick rear naked choke of CJ Vergara back in March, Puro Chicali reminded everyone why he's dangerous when he gets his hands on your neck. The guy's got two first round submission wins in his last three fights, and both times he didn't even need two and a half minutes to get it done. That's the kind of finishing instinct that gets fans hyped. Felipe Bunes is walking into hostile territory after a tough stretch. He got caught in an armbar by Jose Johnson in under two minutes back in January 2025, then dropped a decision to Rafael Estevam in August.
If this hits the mat in round one, Chairez could have Bunes in serious trouble before the crowd even settles in.
The Brazilian's been in some wars though. That fight with Joshua Van where he landed 57 strikes before getting stopped showed he's got volume and heart, but Chairez is a different puzzle. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are orthodox flyweights who love to grapple, but Chairez has been way more efficient with his finishes lately. Bunes throws more volume and isn't afraid to get into firefights, but that aggressive style could play right into the Mexican's submission game. When Chairez smells blood, he doesn't waste time.
Remember that triangle choke from bottom guard against Daniel Lacerda? That's high level jiu jitsu under pressure. The Mexico City crowd is going to be absolutely electric for their guy. This bout survived the recent main event shuffle that hit the UFC Mexico card, and now Chairez gets to showcase his grappling wizardry in front of his home fans on February 28. Bunes needs to keep this standing and make it ugly, but one scramble could be all Chairez needs.
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Edgar Chairez finish map
Edgar Chairez breakdown
Edgar Chairez's recent form
Pace delta
+1.1 significant strikes/min
Felipe Bunes averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute while Edgar Chairez sits at 3.4.
AI confidence
79%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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