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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Cristian Quinonez is fighting at home in Mexico City, and he desperately needs this one. The Mexican bantamweight has dropped two straight, both by rear naked choke, including that tough loss to Raoni Barcelos back in February 2024. Before that rough stretch, he looked nasty when he finished Khalid Taha with ground and pound in Paris. Now he's got a chance to turn things around in front of his people. Kris Moutinho is coming off back to back brutal knockout losses.
If Quinonez doesn't get the takedown early, Moutinho's pressure could break him in the second round.
Most recently, Malcolm Wellmaker slept him in under three minutes this past June in Atlanta. Before that, Guido Cannetti caught him early in 2022. But here's the thing, everyone remembers his war with Sean O'Malley at UFC 264. Moutinho ate everything Suga threw at him for nearly three full rounds, landing 70 strikes before finally getting stopped. That kind of toughness doesn't just disappear.
This is a classic striker versus grappler setup. Quinonez has shown he can finish fights on the mat when he gets you there. Moutinho is a southpaw brawler who keeps coming forward no matter what. The question is whether Quinonez can get this to the ground before Moutinho finds his rhythm on the feet. Both guys are hunting for a finish because neither can afford to keep losing.
Cristian Quinonez finish map
Cristian Quinonez breakdown
Cristian Quinonez's recent form
Cristian Quinonez is fighting at home in Mexico City, and he desperately needs this one. The Mexican bantamweight has dropped two straight, both by rear naked choke, including that tough loss to Raoni Barcelos back in February 2024. Before that rough stretch, he looked nasty when he finished Khalid Taha with ground and pound in Paris. Now he's got a chance to turn things around in front of his people. Kris Moutinho is coming off back to back brutal knockout losses.
If Quinonez doesn't get the takedown early, Moutinho's pressure could break him in the second round.
Most recently, Malcolm Wellmaker slept him in under three minutes this past June in Atlanta. Before that, Guido Cannetti caught him early in 2022. But here's the thing, everyone remembers his war with Sean O'Malley at UFC 264. Moutinho ate everything Suga threw at him for nearly three full rounds, landing 70 strikes before finally getting stopped. That kind of toughness doesn't just disappear.
This is a classic striker versus grappler setup. Quinonez has shown he can finish fights on the mat when he gets you there. Moutinho is a southpaw brawler who keeps coming forward no matter what. The question is whether Quinonez can get this to the ground before Moutinho finds his rhythm on the feet. Both guys are hunting for a finish because neither can afford to keep losing.
Kris Moutinho finish map
Kris Moutinho breakdown
Kris Moutinho's recent form
Pace delta
+0.7 significant strikes/min
Kris Moutinho averages 4.9 significant strikes per minute while Cristian Quinonez sits at 4.2.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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AI War Room Preview
AgentMMA's models flagged a high-confidence edge in this matchup. Unlock the full breakdown, confidence grade, and staking plan for Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho.
Confidence grade revealed inside
