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UFC Record Breakdown
Asu Almabayev is riding high after that nasty guillotine finish over Alex Perez back in November, the kind of submission that had everyone rewinding to watch again. But here's the thing, that came right after Manel Kape knocked him out in their main event last March, so Almabayev knows what it feels like to get caught. Charles Johnson is coming off a split decision win over Bruno Silva in March, showing he can grind out tough fights when he needs to. This matchup is all about Almabayev's grappling pressure against Johnson's switch stance striking.
If Almabayev gets his hands locked, this could end suddenly in rounds two or three.
The Kazakh fighter put up crazy numbers in his win over Jose Johnson back in June 2024, landing 77 strikes and hitting 6 takedowns while controlling for over 11 minutes. Johnson proved he can crack though, sleeping Lone'er Kavanagh with a second round knockout in China last August. But he also got starched by Alex Perez in the first round this past January, the same guy Almabayev just choked out. Almabayev's wrestling is relentless when he gets going, but Johnson's ability to switch stances keeps guys guessing.
Johnson threw 189 strikes in that Bruno Silva fight, showing he's got the gas tank to keep firing. The question is whether he can keep this fight standing long enough to land something big, or if Almabayev drags him into deep water and finds a finish like he's done before.
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Charles Johnson finish map
Charles Johnson breakdown
Charles Johnson's recent form
Asu Almabayev is riding high after that nasty guillotine finish over Alex Perez back in November, the kind of submission that had everyone rewinding to watch again. But here's the thing, that came right after Manel Kape knocked him out in their main event last March, so Almabayev knows what it feels like to get caught. Charles Johnson is coming off a split decision win over Bruno Silva in March, showing he can grind out tough fights when he needs to. This matchup is all about Almabayev's grappling pressure against Johnson's switch stance striking.
If Almabayev gets his hands locked, this could end suddenly in rounds two or three.
The Kazakh fighter put up crazy numbers in his win over Jose Johnson back in June 2024, landing 77 strikes and hitting 6 takedowns while controlling for over 11 minutes. Johnson proved he can crack though, sleeping Lone'er Kavanagh with a second round knockout in China last August. But he also got starched by Alex Perez in the first round this past January, the same guy Almabayev just choked out. Almabayev's wrestling is relentless when he gets going, but Johnson's ability to switch stances keeps guys guessing.
Johnson threw 189 strikes in that Bruno Silva fight, showing he's got the gas tank to keep firing. The question is whether he can keep this fight standing long enough to land something big, or if Almabayev drags him into deep water and finds a finish like he's done before.
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Asu Almabayev finish map
Asu Almabayev breakdown
Asu Almabayev's recent form
Pace delta
+2.5 significant strikes/min
Charles Johnson averages 4.8 significant strikes per minute while Asu Almabayev sits at 2.3.
AI confidence
79%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Charles Johnson vs Asu Almabayev odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
