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UFC Record Breakdown
Clayton Carpenter needs this one bad. After getting caught in a kimura by Jafel Filho back in October and dropping a decision to Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 in January, he's staring down a rough 0-2 start to 2025. The MMA Lab fighter showed he's got finishing instincts with back to back rear naked chokes in 2023 and 2024, but lately he's been on the wrong end of things. Jose "Kalzifer" Ochoa is coming off his own tough stretch too. The Peruvian southpaw got handled by Asu Almabayev in July, then dropped another decision to Lone'er Kavanagh in November.
If Carpenter can survive the early exchanges and drag this to the mat, round two is where his back takes get dangerous.
Here's what makes this interesting though. Ochoa showed he's got serious power when he slept Cody Durden with a punch just 11 seconds into round two back in June. That's the kind of threat that can change a fight in a heartbeat. Carpenter's been the more active grappler historically, but his last outing against Ulanbekov saw him land 86 strikes at 74% accuracy, so he's not afraid to stand and trade either. Both guys train at legit camps.
Carpenter's at MMA Lab grinding with some serious talent, while Ochoa reps Chute Boxe Diego Lima. The grappling edge probably goes to Carpenter based on his submission wins, but Ochoa's got that one punch power that keeps things dangerous. Fans are watching to see who can stop the bleeding first, because another loss puts either guy in a real tough spot in this stacked flyweight division.
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Unlock full analysisJose Ochoa finish map
Jose Ochoa breakdown
Jose Ochoa's recent form
Clayton Carpenter needs this one bad. After getting caught in a kimura by Jafel Filho back in October and dropping a decision to Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 in January, he's staring down a rough 0-2 start to 2025. The MMA Lab fighter showed he's got finishing instincts with back to back rear naked chokes in 2023 and 2024, but lately he's been on the wrong end of things. Jose "Kalzifer" Ochoa is coming off his own tough stretch too. The Peruvian southpaw got handled by Asu Almabayev in July, then dropped another decision to Lone'er Kavanagh in November.
If Carpenter can survive the early exchanges and drag this to the mat, round two is where his back takes get dangerous.
Here's what makes this interesting though. Ochoa showed he's got serious power when he slept Cody Durden with a punch just 11 seconds into round two back in June. That's the kind of threat that can change a fight in a heartbeat. Carpenter's been the more active grappler historically, but his last outing against Ulanbekov saw him land 86 strikes at 74% accuracy, so he's not afraid to stand and trade either. Both guys train at legit camps.
Carpenter's at MMA Lab grinding with some serious talent, while Ochoa reps Chute Boxe Diego Lima. The grappling edge probably goes to Carpenter based on his submission wins, but Ochoa's got that one punch power that keeps things dangerous. Fans are watching to see who can stop the bleeding first, because another loss puts either guy in a real tough spot in this stacked flyweight division.
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Unlock full analysisClayton Carpenter finish map
Clayton Carpenter breakdown
Clayton Carpenter's recent form
Pace delta
+0.7 significant strikes/min
Clayton Carpenter averages 3.7 significant strikes per minute while Jose Ochoa sits at 3.0.
AI confidence
93%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Jose Ochoa vs Clayton Carpenter odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
