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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Michael Chiesa is riding a nice little streak right now, and fans are wondering if the veteran grappler still has what it takes to crack the top 15. He's coming off three straight wins, including back to back rear naked chokes over Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson, then a solid decision over Court McGee in Atlanta. That's the Chiesa we remember, the guy who makes you tap or puts you to sleep. But here's the twist: this is Chiesa's retirement fight. The 37 year old announced on the Anik and Florian Podcast that UFC Seattle on March 28th will be his farewell after 21 fights in the octagon. That changes everything about this matchup.
If Chiesa gets this to the mat in rounds one or two, expect him to hunt that neck, but Harris has the power to end it early if he catches Chiesa coming in.
Chiesa isn't fighting for rankings anymore, he's fighting for legacy. Carlston Harris is in a tough spot here. The Guyanese fighter has dropped three of his last four, getting knocked out by Santiago Ponzinibbio and Khaos Williams in brutal fashion. That Khaos knockout lasted 90 seconds, just a straight punch to the dome. Before that rough stretch, Harris showed some slick grappling with an anaconda choke over Jeremiah Wells and a decision win where he landed 140 strikes. But those knockout losses are scary, especially against a guy like Chiesa who's been finishing fights.
This is a classic grappler versus someone who needs to keep it standing. Chiesa's southpaw stance and submission game make him dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He's got 228 seconds of control time in his last finish and isn't afraid to grind. Harris has the power to end things early if he can keep Chiesa at distance, but his 0% takedown defense in that Ponzinibbio fight is a red flag. Chiesa smells blood when guys are vulnerable on the ground. The big question is whether Harris can stuff the takedowns and make Chiesa pay standing, or if this turns into another submission highlight for Maverick's swan song.
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Carlston Harris breakdown
Carlston Harris's recent form
Michael Chiesa is riding a nice little streak right now, and fans are wondering if the veteran grappler still has what it takes to crack the top 15. He's coming off three straight wins, including back to back rear naked chokes over Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson, then a solid decision over Court McGee in Atlanta. That's the Chiesa we remember, the guy who makes you tap or puts you to sleep. But here's the twist: this is Chiesa's retirement fight. The 37 year old announced on the Anik and Florian Podcast that UFC Seattle on March 28th will be his farewell after 21 fights in the octagon. That changes everything about this matchup.
If Chiesa gets this to the mat in rounds one or two, expect him to hunt that neck, but Harris has the power to end it early if he catches Chiesa coming in.
Chiesa isn't fighting for rankings anymore, he's fighting for legacy. Carlston Harris is in a tough spot here. The Guyanese fighter has dropped three of his last four, getting knocked out by Santiago Ponzinibbio and Khaos Williams in brutal fashion. That Khaos knockout lasted 90 seconds, just a straight punch to the dome. Before that rough stretch, Harris showed some slick grappling with an anaconda choke over Jeremiah Wells and a decision win where he landed 140 strikes. But those knockout losses are scary, especially against a guy like Chiesa who's been finishing fights.
This is a classic grappler versus someone who needs to keep it standing. Chiesa's southpaw stance and submission game make him dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He's got 228 seconds of control time in his last finish and isn't afraid to grind. Harris has the power to end things early if he can keep Chiesa at distance, but his 0% takedown defense in that Ponzinibbio fight is a red flag. Chiesa smells blood when guys are vulnerable on the ground. The big question is whether Harris can stuff the takedowns and make Chiesa pay standing, or if this turns into another submission highlight for Maverick's swan song.
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Michael Chiesa finish map
Michael Chiesa breakdown
Michael Chiesa's recent form
Pace delta
+2.0 significant strikes/min
Carlston Harris averages 3.8 significant strikes per minute while Michael Chiesa sits at 1.8.
AI confidence
94%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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