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UFC Record Breakdown
Mitch Raposo is trying to figure out this UFC thing, and Allan Nascimento might be the worst possible guy to face while you're still learning. Raposo's riding a nice win over Azat Maksum back in October, but before that? Two straight split decision losses that could've gone either way. He's sitting at that crossroads where one more L might mean a pink slip. Nascimento is a different animal entirely. The Brazilian just choked out Cody Durden with a nasty anaconda back in November, and before that he outworked Jafel Filho for three rounds. This dude's got four UFC wins and only one loss, that split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov back in 2021. His nickname is "Puro Osso" which means Pure Bone, and when you watch him fight, you get it.
If Nascimento gets this to the ground in rounds one or two, expect him to start hunting necks and looking for that finish.
He's all elbows and knees and sneaky submissions. Here's the thing about this matchup. Raposo's a switch stance guy from Regiment Training Center, so he's got some tools. But Nascimento is a Chute Boxe product who can crack you standing and strangle you on the mat. That first round rear naked choke of Carlos Hernandez? Took him three minutes. The flyweight division doesn't mess around, and Nascimento's proven he belongs in that top 15 conversation. For Raposo, this is a massive step up in competition.
He needs to show he can hang with a legit contender, not just survive against guys also fighting to stay employed. Nascimento's looking to make it three straight and start calling out ranked names. The scrap is officially set for UFC Fight Night in Winnipeg on April 18, 2026, giving both fighters plenty of time to prepare for what could be a career defining moment. Raposo's recent split decision loss to Sumudaerji at UFC 314 in April 2025 is still fresh in the minds of fans, showing just how razor thin the margins are at flyweight. That fight saw him land only 43% of his strikes and struggle with his takedown game, going 6 for 19. Now with just over five weeks until Winnipeg, he's got the camp time to tighten things up against a submission specialist who won't give him any breathing room.
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Mitch Raposo finish map
Mitch Raposo breakdown
Mitch Raposo's recent form
Mitch Raposo is trying to figure out this UFC thing, and Allan Nascimento might be the worst possible guy to face while you're still learning. Raposo's riding a nice win over Azat Maksum back in October, but before that? Two straight split decision losses that could've gone either way. He's sitting at that crossroads where one more L might mean a pink slip. Nascimento is a different animal entirely. The Brazilian just choked out Cody Durden with a nasty anaconda back in November, and before that he outworked Jafel Filho for three rounds. This dude's got four UFC wins and only one loss, that split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov back in 2021. His nickname is "Puro Osso" which means Pure Bone, and when you watch him fight, you get it.
If Nascimento gets this to the ground in rounds one or two, expect him to start hunting necks and looking for that finish.
He's all elbows and knees and sneaky submissions. Here's the thing about this matchup. Raposo's a switch stance guy from Regiment Training Center, so he's got some tools. But Nascimento is a Chute Boxe product who can crack you standing and strangle you on the mat. That first round rear naked choke of Carlos Hernandez? Took him three minutes. The flyweight division doesn't mess around, and Nascimento's proven he belongs in that top 15 conversation. For Raposo, this is a massive step up in competition.
He needs to show he can hang with a legit contender, not just survive against guys also fighting to stay employed. Nascimento's looking to make it three straight and start calling out ranked names. The scrap is officially set for UFC Fight Night in Winnipeg on April 18, 2026, giving both fighters plenty of time to prepare for what could be a career defining moment. Raposo's recent split decision loss to Sumudaerji at UFC 314 in April 2025 is still fresh in the minds of fans, showing just how razor thin the margins are at flyweight. That fight saw him land only 43% of his strikes and struggle with his takedown game, going 6 for 19. Now with just over five weeks until Winnipeg, he's got the camp time to tighten things up against a submission specialist who won't give him any breathing room.
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Allan Nascimento finish map
Allan Nascimento breakdown
Allan Nascimento's recent form
Pace delta
+1.3 significant strikes/min
Allan Nascimento averages 3.1 significant strikes per minute while Mitch Raposo sits at 1.7.
AI confidence
88%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
