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Two Brazilian flyweights are about to throw down, and both guys are coming off completely different vibes. Jafel Filho just pulled off that sick kimura from bottom half guard against Clayton Carpenter back in October, getting back in the win column after dropping a decision to Allan Nascimento earlier in 2025. Lucas Rocha bounced back too, grinding out a unanimous decision over Stewart Nicoll in that same Rio card after getting submitted by that same Clayton Carpenter dude last October. Here's what makes this one interesting. Filho is a straight up submission artist out of Nova Uniao. Three of his four UFC wins have been finishes, all by submission, and he's not picky about how he gets them.
If this hits the ground in rounds one or two, Filho's hunting for a finish, but if Rocha keeps the pressure high and the fight standing, this could go the distance.
Arm triangles, rear naked chokes, that crazy kimura from the bottom. The dude finds necks and limbs wherever the fight goes. Rocha showed some serious volume in his last win though, landing 130 strikes and mixing in takedowns. He's got that pressure style that could make things messy. The big question is whether Rocha can keep this standing and turn it into a dog fight, or if Filho drags him into deep water and finds a finish. Both guys train in Brazil, both are orthodox, and both know what's on the line in a flyweight division where every win matters.
Filho's been finished before (Mokaev got him with a neck crank back in 2023), so he's not invincible, but his submission game is legit scary when he gets going. The UFC officially locked this one in for the April 25th UFC Vegas 116 card, giving both Brazilians a chance to build momentum in a division that's wide open outside the top five. This matchup has serious grappling intrigue written all over it, especially since both guys have history with Clayton Carpenter. Filho submitted him, Rocha got submitted by him. The flyweight division stays weird like that.
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Jafel Filho finish map
Jafel Filho breakdown
Jafel Filho's recent form
Two Brazilian flyweights are about to throw down, and both guys are coming off completely different vibes. Jafel Filho just pulled off that sick kimura from bottom half guard against Clayton Carpenter back in October, getting back in the win column after dropping a decision to Allan Nascimento earlier in 2025. Lucas Rocha bounced back too, grinding out a unanimous decision over Stewart Nicoll in that same Rio card after getting submitted by that same Clayton Carpenter dude last October. Here's what makes this one interesting. Filho is a straight up submission artist out of Nova Uniao. Three of his four UFC wins have been finishes, all by submission, and he's not picky about how he gets them.
If this hits the ground in rounds one or two, Filho's hunting for a finish, but if Rocha keeps the pressure high and the fight standing, this could go the distance.
Arm triangles, rear naked chokes, that crazy kimura from the bottom. The dude finds necks and limbs wherever the fight goes. Rocha showed some serious volume in his last win though, landing 130 strikes and mixing in takedowns. He's got that pressure style that could make things messy. The big question is whether Rocha can keep this standing and turn it into a dog fight, or if Filho drags him into deep water and finds a finish. Both guys train in Brazil, both are orthodox, and both know what's on the line in a flyweight division where every win matters.
Filho's been finished before (Mokaev got him with a neck crank back in 2023), so he's not invincible, but his submission game is legit scary when he gets going. The UFC officially locked this one in for the April 25th UFC Vegas 116 card, giving both Brazilians a chance to build momentum in a division that's wide open outside the top five. This matchup has serious grappling intrigue written all over it, especially since both guys have history with Clayton Carpenter. Filho submitted him, Rocha got submitted by him. The flyweight division stays weird like that.
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Lucas Rocha finish map
Lucas Rocha breakdown
Lucas Rocha's recent form
Pace delta
+3.2 significant strikes/min
Lucas Rocha averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute while Jafel Filho sits at 1.9.
AI confidence
79%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Jafel Filho vs Lucas Rocha odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
