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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Two Brazilian flyweights are about to throw down, and both guys are coming off completely different vibes. Jafel Filho just pulled off that sick kimura from bottom half guard against Clayton Carpenter back in October, getting back in the win column after dropping a decision to Allan Nascimento earlier in 2025. Lucas Rocha bounced back too, grinding out a unanimous decision over Stewart Nicoll in that same Rio card after getting submitted by that same Clayton Carpenter dude last October. Here's what makes this one interesting. Filho is a straight up submission artist out of Nova Uniao.
If this hits the ground in rounds one or two, Filho's hunting for a finish, but if Rocha keeps the pressure high and the fight standing, this could go the distance.
Three of his four UFC wins have been finishes, all by submission, and he's not picky about how he gets them. Arm triangles, rear naked chokes, that crazy kimura from the bottom. The dude finds necks and limbs wherever the fight goes. Rocha showed some serious volume in his last win though, landing 130 strikes and mixing in takedowns. He's got that pressure style that could make things messy.
The big question is whether Rocha can keep this standing and turn it into a dog fight, or if Filho drags him into deep water and finds a finish. Both guys train in Brazil, both are orthodox, and both know what's on the line in a flyweight division where every win matters. Filho's been finished before (Mokaev got him with a neck crank back in 2023), so he's not invincible, but his submission game is legit scary when he gets going.
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Jafel Filho finish map
Jafel Filho breakdown
Jafel Filho's recent form
Two Brazilian flyweights are about to throw down, and both guys are coming off completely different vibes. Jafel Filho just pulled off that sick kimura from bottom half guard against Clayton Carpenter back in October, getting back in the win column after dropping a decision to Allan Nascimento earlier in 2025. Lucas Rocha bounced back too, grinding out a unanimous decision over Stewart Nicoll in that same Rio card after getting submitted by that same Clayton Carpenter dude last October. Here's what makes this one interesting. Filho is a straight up submission artist out of Nova Uniao.
If this hits the ground in rounds one or two, Filho's hunting for a finish, but if Rocha keeps the pressure high and the fight standing, this could go the distance.
Three of his four UFC wins have been finishes, all by submission, and he's not picky about how he gets them. Arm triangles, rear naked chokes, that crazy kimura from the bottom. The dude finds necks and limbs wherever the fight goes. Rocha showed some serious volume in his last win though, landing 130 strikes and mixing in takedowns. He's got that pressure style that could make things messy.
The big question is whether Rocha can keep this standing and turn it into a dog fight, or if Filho drags him into deep water and finds a finish. Both guys train in Brazil, both are orthodox, and both know what's on the line in a flyweight division where every win matters. Filho's been finished before (Mokaev got him with a neck crank back in 2023), so he's not invincible, but his submission game is legit scary when he gets going.
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Lucas Rocha finish map
Lucas Rocha breakdown
Lucas Rocha's recent form
Pace delta
+3.2 significant strikes/min
Lucas Rocha averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute while Jafel Filho sits at 1.9.
AI confidence
79%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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