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UFC Record Breakdown
Billy Quarantillo is walking into this one carrying some heavy baggage. Two straight losses, including that brutal third round stoppage against Cub Swanson in Tampa back in December. Before that, Youssef Zalal caught him with a rear naked choke. The guy's tough as nails and always brings a fight, but he needs this win badly. Diego Ferreira isn't exactly riding high either. He's dropped three straight, most recently getting stopped by Alexander Hernandez (the same dude Quarantillo knocked out back in 2022, weirdly enough).
Expect the fireworks in rounds two and three when the pace catches up and someone's chin finally gives out.
Ferreira looked sharp beating Mateusz Rebecki in 2024, but then the wheels came off again. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are volume strikers who love to push the pace and get into firefights. Quarantillo landed 108 strikes against Swanson even in a losing effort, and Ferreira put up 151 against Rebecki. Neither one's backing down, which means we're probably getting a war. Quarantillo's got that relentless pressure and cardio for days, while Ferreira showed he can still crack when he finished Rebecki from mount in the third round.
The technical edge is tough to call. Quarantillo's more of a pure boxer who keeps it standing, but Ferreira's got slick grappling when he needs it (perfect 3 for 3 on takedowns against Rebecki). The real question is who wants it more. Two fighters staring down the possibility of getting cut, both desperate to stop the bleeding. Someone's skid ends Saturday night, and someone's might get a lot worse.
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Unlock full analysisBilly Quarantillo finish map
Billy Quarantillo breakdown
Billy Quarantillo's recent form
Billy Quarantillo is walking into this one carrying some heavy baggage. Two straight losses, including that brutal third round stoppage against Cub Swanson in Tampa back in December. Before that, Youssef Zalal caught him with a rear naked choke. The guy's tough as nails and always brings a fight, but he needs this win badly. Diego Ferreira isn't exactly riding high either. He's dropped three straight, most recently getting stopped by Alexander Hernandez (the same dude Quarantillo knocked out back in 2022, weirdly enough).
Expect the fireworks in rounds two and three when the pace catches up and someone's chin finally gives out.
Ferreira looked sharp beating Mateusz Rebecki in 2024, but then the wheels came off again. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are volume strikers who love to push the pace and get into firefights. Quarantillo landed 108 strikes against Swanson even in a losing effort, and Ferreira put up 151 against Rebecki. Neither one's backing down, which means we're probably getting a war. Quarantillo's got that relentless pressure and cardio for days, while Ferreira showed he can still crack when he finished Rebecki from mount in the third round.
The technical edge is tough to call. Quarantillo's more of a pure boxer who keeps it standing, but Ferreira's got slick grappling when he needs it (perfect 3 for 3 on takedowns against Rebecki). The real question is who wants it more. Two fighters staring down the possibility of getting cut, both desperate to stop the bleeding. Someone's skid ends Saturday night, and someone's might get a lot worse.
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Unlock full analysisDiego Ferreira finish map
Diego Ferreira breakdown
Diego Ferreira's recent form
Pace delta
+2.7 significant strikes/min
Billy Quarantillo averages 7.4 significant strikes per minute while Diego Ferreira sits at 4.7.
AI confidence
81%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Billy Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
