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UFC Record Breakdown
Steven "Concrete" Asplund is trying to bounce back after getting outworked by Vitor Petrino in March, dropping a unanimous decision where all three judges had it 29 to 28. Before that loss, Asplund was looking dangerous, stopping Sean Sharaf with punches in the second round back in December. The dude landed 73 strikes in that Petrino fight but only connected at 42 percent, and he couldn't get a single takedown to land. That's the puzzle he needs to solve here.
Heavyweights rarely make it boring, so expect the fireworks in rounds one and two when both guys are fresh and swinging.
Guilherme "Kong" Pat is coming off a tough majority decision loss to Thomas Petersen in April, where two judges saw it 29 to 27 against him. But before that setback, Pat looked solid grinding out a unanimous decision over Allen Frye Jr. in December, with all three judges scoring it 30 to 27. Both these heavyweights are sitting on recent losses and need this win badly. This is a classic heavyweight striker versus striker battle.
Asplund showed he can crack when he put Sharaf away, but his striking accuracy needs work. Pat proved he can go three hard rounds and win on the scorecards, showing he's got the gas tank and the grit. The question is whether Asplund can land that big shot before Pat starts piling up points. Neither guy has shown much wrestling in their recent fights, so expect this one to stay standing where the power is.
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Guilherme Pat's recent form
Steven "Concrete" Asplund is trying to bounce back after getting outworked by Vitor Petrino in March, dropping a unanimous decision where all three judges had it 29 to 28. Before that loss, Asplund was looking dangerous, stopping Sean Sharaf with punches in the second round back in December. The dude landed 73 strikes in that Petrino fight but only connected at 42 percent, and he couldn't get a single takedown to land. That's the puzzle he needs to solve here.
Heavyweights rarely make it boring, so expect the fireworks in rounds one and two when both guys are fresh and swinging.
Guilherme "Kong" Pat is coming off a tough majority decision loss to Thomas Petersen in April, where two judges saw it 29 to 27 against him. But before that setback, Pat looked solid grinding out a unanimous decision over Allen Frye Jr. in December, with all three judges scoring it 30 to 27. Both these heavyweights are sitting on recent losses and need this win badly. This is a classic heavyweight striker versus striker battle.
Asplund showed he can crack when he put Sharaf away, but his striking accuracy needs work. Pat proved he can go three hard rounds and win on the scorecards, showing he's got the gas tank and the grit. The question is whether Asplund can land that big shot before Pat starts piling up points. Neither guy has shown much wrestling in their recent fights, so expect this one to stay standing where the power is.
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Steven Asplund's recent form
Pace delta
+7.4 significant strikes/min
Steven Asplund averages 10.1 significant strikes per minute while Guilherme Pat sits at 2.7.
AI confidence
78%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
