Yan vs Dvalishvili 3: Which UFC Fight Stats Can You Trust?

Quick answer

For Yan vs Dvalishvili 3, trust the relationship between takedowns, striking and effective offense more than any isolated percentage. Petr Yan defended most takedown attempts in both previous meetings, yet lost the first and won the second. Merab Dvalishvili led control time in both. Neither statistic settles the trilogy. Their two fights show why you need to ask what defense allowed each fighter to do next. They don't establish a reliable win probability for UFC 333.

Data snapshot: Two head-to-head bouts, on March 11, 2023, and December 6, 2025; 10 completed rounds and 50 minutes. Published UFC Stats counts, cross-checked against FightingData and official results. Preview checked October 21, 2026.

What makes Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 a useful stats test?

The same opponents produced opposite results without changing the basic matchup, making their rivalry a useful test of easy statistical explanations.

Dvalishvili won their first meeting by unanimous decision in March 2023. Yan won the December 2025 rematch by unanimous decision and reclaimed the bantamweight title.

UFC's current event listing schedules the trilogy for October 24, 2026, at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi. Yan enters as the reigning champion. Dvalishvili is the challenger.

This is a case study of published fight records, not a new database-wide study. It asks which numbers explain the change, and which tempt you into predicting too much.

Start with the complete comparison, because looking only at the latest result hides useful evidence from the earlier fight.

What changed between their first two fights?

Yan's takedown defense improved, but his offensive output changed too. Dvalishvili kept a control-time advantage while losing much of his takedown success.

The table uses UFC Stats bout counts, also reproduced by FightingData. Strike and takedown fractions show landed attempts over total attempts.

Accuracy here equals landed significant strikes divided by attempts, rounded to one decimal place. Control time is shown in minutes and seconds.

The largest trap sits in the accuracy row: Yan was already the more accurate striker in the fight he lost.

Efficiency didn't cancel Dvalishvili's volume. In the rematch, Yan combined greater accuracy with enough landed work to reverse the striking lead.

Did better takedown defense win Yan the rematch?

It helped create a different fight, but the totals cannot prove it caused the win.

Yan stopped 38 of 49 recorded attempts in 2023 and 27 of 29 in 2025, producing defense rates of 77.6% and 93.1%.

Both sound impressive. Only the second accompanied a victory.

The first fight shows why failed takedowns need context. A defended attempt can still leave you against the fence, occupied with grips, or unable to launch your own offense.

Those are possible effects to check on video, not effects measured by the takedown-defense percentage, which only records whether the takedown succeeded.

Tristen Critchfield's Sherdog review describes Dvalishvili's repeated wrestling threats keeping Yan off balance in 2023 and records him outlanding Yan in every round.

That combination matters. Dvalishvili's low completion rate didn't stop him from producing more landed offense.

For the trilogy, watch whether Yan exits defensive exchanges ready to strike. A stuffed shot followed by clean offense tells you more than a stuffed shot alone.

The Association of Boxing Commissions explicitly says judges don't award points for defense itself, so don't turn that observation into an automatic scoring bonus.

Why didn't Dvalishvili's control time settle either fight?

The control-time leader won once and lost once, so this statistic alone isn't enough to explain the result.

Dvalishvili's recorded advantage survived the rematch: 5:12 against Yan's 2:55, yet all judges awarded Yan the fight.

The official UFC scorecards of 49-46, 49-46 and 48-47 establish the result, not a formula converting control seconds into points.

The ABC's 2025 scoring clarification prioritizes the effect of legal offense and treats successful striking and grappling as equally valid routes to effective fighting.

Holding a position and producing damaging offense from it are different observations. The clock measures time; it doesn't measure the quality of everything done during that time.

So read control alongside the attacks it supports, looking for effective strikes, threatening submissions and the opponent's responses.

You also need each round separately, because a whole-fight control total cannot show how the scoring opportunities were distributed across the scorecards.

Was Yan's striking accuracy the decisive difference?

The rematch figures describe a large efficiency gap, but they don't measure impact. Yan landed 139 of 230 significant attempts; Dvalishvili landed 134 of 383.

Yan landed slightly more while throwing much less, which tells you something useful about how the exchanges unfolded. It isn't proof that every landed shot carried equal weight.

UFC's official recap reports Yan hurting Dvalishvili to the body repeatedly, adding information the overall strike count cannot supply.

A total of landed strikes gives each counted strike one entry, while judging requires assessing what legal offense did to the opponent.

This is why you should resist picking between volume and accuracy as a universal winner. Both need context, including where strikes landed and their visible effects.

The first meeting makes the point without an unrelated example: Yan's better accuracy coexisted with a much smaller landed total and a clear decision loss.

The second meeting changed the balance: his accurate work came with more output and successful wrestling of his own.

What should you watch in the UFC 333 trilogy?

Watch the exchanges that connect wrestling and striking. The following checks are more useful than waiting for a career average to repeat.

• After a defended shot, can Yan separate and attack, or does Dvalishvili immediately restart the wrestling?
• When Dvalishvili secures position, does he create effective offense or mainly keep Yan occupied?
• Can Yan land clean counters without giving Dvalishvili easier access to his hips?
• Does either fighter's success persist across rounds, or depend on isolated moments?

These are viewing questions, not claimed findings from a tracking system: the published totals don't measure every grip change, exit or countering opportunity.

They also keep the analysis open to either fighter. Dvalishvili has already shown he can combine repeated wrestling with a striking lead against Yan.

Yan has shown he can reduce the takedown return while delivering his own offense. Neither route depends on pretending the other performance never happened.

If the early rounds look different, update your explanation rather than forcing new action into the story you preferred before the opening bell.

Can these stats support a reliable fight prediction?

They can inform a prediction, but they cannot produce a defensible probability on their own.

A head-to-head record of 1-1 doesn't mean equal chances next time. It tells you how two completed fights ended under their particular conditions.

Nor does winning the latest meeting prove that Yan has permanently solved the matchup, because Dvalishvili gets another chance to adjust.

To evaluate a prediction method, record forecasts before outcomes are known, then compare those forecasts with results across other fights.

This article doesn't perform that test, assign a win percentage or claim either fighter offers betting value.

Keep your observations separate from your forecast. Write down what you expect each fighter to do, and what evidence would change your mind.

That makes the analysis reviewable after the fight. A winning pick supported by the wrong explanation still deserves scrutiny.

How solid is this data?

The fight counts and official results provide a firm descriptive base, but the predictive sample is small: two bouts involving the same opponents.

The 10 rounds aren't 10 independent tests of a general rule because they share fighters, preparation, tactics and the effects of earlier exchanges.

With a cutoff of October 21, 2026, we include both completed meetings and exclude the unplayed UFC 333 bout.

The comparison uses published UFC Stats totals, with FightingData as a cross-check. UFC reporting supplies the results and current title context.

The analysis cannot isolate preparation, physical condition, tactical changes or recovery between appearances, so a percentage change doesn't identify its cause.

The source totals also lack a direct measurement of damage or energy spent defending. We haven't independently recounted the footage.

Use the table to identify questions worth checking. It cannot establish a league-wide rule, a medical explanation, or a validated prediction model.

FAQ

Who won the first two Yan vs Dvalishvili fights?

Merab Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision on March 11, 2023, while Petr Yan won their rematch by unanimous decision on December 6, 2025. Their series is 1-1 before UFC 333.

How many takedowns did Yan defend against Dvalishvili?

Yan defended 38 of 49 recorded attempts in their first fight and 27 of 29 in the rematch. That equals 77.6% and 93.1%, rounded to one decimal place.

Did Dvalishvili have more control time when Yan beat him?

Yes. Published bout statistics list Dvalishvili with 5:12 of control and Yan with 2:55 at UFC 323. Yan still won by unanimous decision, showing that control time alone doesn't establish effective offense.

When is Yan vs Dvalishvili 3, and who is champion?

As checked on October 21, 2026, UFC schedules the trilogy for October 24 at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi. Petr Yan is the reigning UFC bantamweight champion. Merab Dvalishvili challenges for the belt.