A detailed breakdown examines the central question of the Maddalena vs Prates fight: which fighter will be forced to retreat. Both fighters have built their careers on forward movement, with Prates dropping 11 opponents in the UFC while advancing and Maddalena never fighting on the back foot. If both stand and trade in the center, Maddalena faces serious danger, having absorbed over 50 clean straight punches from Belal Muhammad while Prates needs only one to finish fights. Maddalena's best path to victory involves forcing Prates backward with short combination boxing and controlling him against the cage, though this carries the risk of knees and elbows at close range. The analyst notes that Ian Garry succeeded against Prates partly due to exceptional skill at reading the Brazilian's left hand through extensive southpaw sparring experience, something Maddalena may lack. Despite these challenges, the analyst picks Maddalena to force Prates backward and accumulate damage over multiple rounds, potentially winning by decision or late TKO in rounds 3-4.
