Analysis suggests Prates will defeat Maddalena despite difficult matchup

An analytical breakdown of the Maddalena versus Prates fight suggests that while Maddalena's pressure-fighting style could theoretically work against Prates, execution will be extremely difficult. The analysis notes that Ian Garry successfully controlled Prates through kicks and footwork, but Maddalena lacks these tools and will have to rely on boxing to control distance. This creates constant risk of counter-strikes from Prates, who has dropped opponents 11 times in the UFC. Even if Maddalena wins early rounds, Prates remains dangerous until the final seconds, as demonstrated when he nearly finished Garry in the fifth round despite losing the first four. The analyst questions whether Maddalena, who was hit cleanly by even Belal Muhammad, can maintain perfect defensive discipline for 25 minutes while pressuring forward, ultimately picking Prates to win.