A detailed breakdown of the Jack Della Maddalena versus Carlos Prates matchup suggests Prates has the edge. While Maddalena's pressure-forward style could work against Prates, who struggles when pressured, the analyst notes Maddalena lacks the kicks and footwork that allowed Ian Garry to control Prates. Maddalena will need to rely on boxing to control distance, creating constant risk of counters from Prates. Even if Maddalena wins early rounds, Prates remains dangerous until the final seconds, as Garry experienced in round five. The analyst believes Maddalena would need to maintain perfect defensive discipline while pressuring for 25 minutes to win, which seems unlikely given his defensive vulnerabilities shown against Belal Muhammad. Prates is picked to win.
A recent analytical breakdown of the welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates concludes that Prates holds the edge, despite Maddalena's aggressive pressure-forward approach giving him a credible path to victory.
Maddalena, ranked fourth in the welterweight division and 13th pound-for-pound, carries an 18-4 record and represents Australia out of Scrappy MMA. The 29-year-old is one of the division's most active strikers, landing 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy. His grappling output is minimal, averaging just 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, meaning his game plan against Prates would lean almost entirely on boxing. The analysis points to defensive vulnerabilities exposed in his loss to Belal Muhammad as a key concern if he cannot maintain pressure for a full 25 minutes.
Prates, 32, fights out of Brazil under the Vale Top Team banner and sits fifth in the welterweight rankings with a 24-7 record. Known as "The Nightmare," the six-foot-one Brazilian carries a 78-inch reach — five inches longer than Maddalena's 73-inch frame — and connects on 55 percent of his significant strikes. The analysis notes he can be troubled by sustained pressure but remains a finishing threat deep into fights, referencing how Ian Garry found him dangerous as late as round five.
Why it matters
- Both fighters sit inside the welterweight top five, making this a significant rankings collision
- Maddalena's boxing-only distance management removes the kicking game that helped Garry control Prates, leaving him exposed to counter strikes
- Prates holds a notable reach advantage at 198 cm versus Maddalena's 185 cm, favoring his counter-striking style
- Maddalena's defensive lapses, highlighted against Muhammad, could prove costly against a finisher of Prates's caliber
